Serious question:
How come? Penals and sniper openings have been the meta for what feels like ages until Conscripts got their 7-man buff. And at least in the early game, not much has changed on the Axis side. Volks got a mini nerf, Sturmpios a very small combat buff. Grenadiers got a vet3 buff but that does not affect the early game.
PGrens come earlier now, that's probably the biggest new thing in Axis early game, plus Panzerfusiliere are now (compared to 2-3 years ago) viable although we do not see them in every game anyway.
Throughout all those mini changes, Soviets have been a quite competitive faction, regardless if they were using Penals or Cons. And judging by tournament games we had since the 7-men buff, Penal builds are less abundant but still played and also still competitive. So it's at least not as a clear case as you make it out to be.
I'd rather argue that Conscripts have become so cost efficient especially in the late game that they just beat Penal build. Especially considering that T1 builds need to back tech at some point while T2 build do not.
Honestly, against soviets, I'm more than likely to forego a flame half-track for a PG with schrecks because I know a T-70 is coming. Plus, AT penals just melt a flame track. Even conscripts can oorah and double nade it.
So I go PG shrecks. I have to. Always try to keep one gren along it for the faust, and double PG's at close range should take care of it.
As for OKW, my main play is Battlegroup for a Flaktrack.
If I'm not using Fallschrims, I'm more than likely using Fusilers due to their scaleability. I may have one Volks for snaring and utility, but they simply cannot survive the late game, even with vet. I can't think of one mainline unit it beats late game (USF double bars, UKF bolster double brens, Soviet 7 man) I honestly don't think the power spike you get with STG's early on makes it worth it.
Honestly, I wish Volks had a bit more grit late game, and I wish Obers would come a bit earlier. Obers have the same problem; they come way late, and when they do, even with an MG34, it's a four man unit that can't burn down 7 man soviets, double bars, double brens, not to mention elite infantry like shock troops until they vet. Which is ridiculous considering how much they cost and when they are available.
Honestly, FG-42 Fallschims are the best AI unit OKW has. Not Obers.