Undoubtedly, the Winter Balance Patch brought a bit of fresh wind into stale heavy tank meta, not least due to nerfs to the AoE damage profile of the Pershing , IS-2 and Tiger. And while all three heavies have been on the receiving end of this, some people feel the Tiger has indeed been hit quite a bit harder by the nerf bat. Justified or not? Well, lets run the numbers to see how much truth there is to this assessment.
To judge the impact of the changes, we'll do a head-to-head comparison of live version of the Tiger, its pre-WBP counterpart, the Vet 2 version of the latter still benefiting from the 20% scatter reduction, and last but not least the Ostheer PzIV to put things into perspective.
Looking at the size of the scatter cone and the AoE area - here in particular the OHK area - in the graph below, you can easily see the extent of the OHK radius reduction between the live and pre-WBP Tiger, as well as the reduced scatter area of the Vet 2 pre-WBP Tiger.
Scatter/AoE area comparison for Tiger, pre WBP Tiger (Vet 0 and Vet 2) and Ostheer PzIV, wide formation
Now the question is of course: How much does that impact the anti infantry performance?
To answer this, let's consider the number of shots required to kill (S2K) a full-health, 6-man squad at a distance of 20 m in a spread-out formation for each tank. Using a sample size of 1,000 iterations we get the following average S2K and T2K (time to kill) values:
Comparison of absolute and relative S2K and T2K values for different tanks versus a full-health, 6-man squad in a wide formation at 20 m distance
While the live Tiger needed 9.5 shots or 45.7 s on average, the pre-WBP version would take about 13% less shots or 15% less time to kill the squad under the same conditions. The the Vet 2 scatter bonus unsurprisingly yielded an even greater performance gain, resulting roughly 25% lower S2K and 28% lower T2K between the old Vet 2 Tiger and its live counterpart.
Still, owing to its superior scatter and despite the much smaller OHK radius the live Tiger remains vastly superior to the PzVI in terms of AI performance, which on average takes more than double the time (~115% more) to wipe all 6 models of the targeted squad.
Considering one objective of the patch was to decrease the OHK potential of heavy tanks, let's crunch the numbers on that one too while we're at it.
Comparison of one-hit kill performance for different tanks versus a full-health, 6-man squad in a wide formation at 20 m distance
As you can see from the graph obtained by again running 1,000 iterations and, this time, recording the number of OHKs per run (i.e. the number of models dropped from 80 to 0 HP in a single shot), the live Tiger did not snipe any model in a single hit in 74% of all cases and OHKed 1 model in the remaining 26%. One-hit wipes of 2 or more models did not happen at all, which of course isn't too surprising given the large maximum AoE and tiny OHK radius of the live 88mm shell in conjunction with the relatively large distance between each squad member.
In contrast, the old Tiger used to wipe at least one entity per hit in more than half the occasions due to the larger OHK radius.
Now of course the recent performance nerfs should be most obvious for clumped-up formations, in which the inter-unit distances get small enough to fit almost the entire squad into the OHK area, so let's see how things change when moving from a spread-out to a much more densely packed formation:
Scatter/AoE area comparison for Tiger, pre WBP Tiger (Vet 0 and Vet 2) and Ostheer PzIV, clumped formation
Since the bunched up model template now conveniently fits into the OHK area of all tanks bar the live Tiger, not only the S2K and T2K values should be considerably smaller than for the wide formation but also one-hit wipes of up to all 6 models should occur much more frequently.
Performance-wise, we find the S2K and T2K of the live Tiger indeed to drop to only 3.9 and 15.4 s, respectively, as seen in the graph below.
Comparison of absolute and relative S2K and T2K values for different tanks versus a full-health, 6-man squad in a clumped formation at 20 m distance
Also in line with our expectation the pre-WBP Tiger performs significantly better than the live Tiger due to the larger AOE near and mid radius together with higher AOE near damage multiplier. As a result, the S2K and T2K are now 19% and 25% lower on average than for the live Tiger, which has to be considered quite significant indeed. Comparing the live Vet 2 Tiger with the pre WBP analog, this performance difference even reaches up to 40% - so it is quite safe to say that complaints about the new Tiger having gotten its fangs pulled are not unjustified in my personal view.
This can also be seen from the OHK performance of the new Tiger, which is now roughly on par with that of the PzIV, albeit without the occasional one-hit squad wipes the PzIV is still capable of due to its relatively large OHK radius.
Comparison of one-hit kill performance for different tanks versus a full-health, 6-man squad in a clumped formation at 20 m distance
In conclusion, I think these results not only show how
Scatter This! can serve as a valuable tool to compare the anti-infantry performance of different tanks under different conditions, but also shows that the Tiger tank may indeed suffer a bit more from the recent nerfs to heavy tanks than intended.
Some of you may also remember me posting a similar, yet more condensed analysis a few weeks ago
here, which came to a slightly different conclusion. However, somehow i missed the AoE near range reduction from 1.5 to 1 m in back then, which made the Tiger look a bit better than it actually is. Nonetheless, the general conclusion that heavies remained almost as lethal as before the patch still stands, even though the Tiger may be a bit of an outlier here.