I can't find the math on this forum so I'll do the quick maths right here.
Preface: The HVAP round has a slight but negligible increase in accuracy compared to the AP round. It probably doesn't matter when you're shooting at a big cat though.
The stats look like this:
AP round = Standard 76 Sherman round. Generalist round, works like the default Pz4 round.
HVAP round = High pen, long reload. Useful for fighting heavy armour. Same name as the Jackson timed munitions ability.
There's a lot of math to cover so I'll start with everyone's favourite premium med, Panther.
When a 76 Sherman fights a Panther, what round is better?
A standard Panther has 260 armour in the front and 960 health. Speaking from the front only as shooting the rear will always be better with the faster firing round (AP).
At max range (40).
The HVAP round has a pen of 165 at far ranges. 165/260*100 is 63.5 so the HVAP round will pen 63.5% of the time. The reload time on the HVAP round is a static 6.1s. It takes 6 shots to kill a Panther with 160 damage so on average, it will take a minimum of 6.1 * 6 = 36.6s to kill a Panther assuming all shots hit. The Panther will bounce some shots though, 36.5% chance to bounce. So that means our 6 shots to kill averages to 9 shots to kill a Panther at long range (6 * 1.365 = 8.19 or rounded up to 9). 9 shots to kill would mean 6.1 * 9 = 54.9s to kill a Panther in a light box. The Panther is expected to bounce 2-3 shots.
AP round has a pen of 120 at far ranges. 120/260*100 is 46.2 so the AP round will pen 46.2% of the time. The reload time on the AP round is averaged at 4.3. It takes 6 shots to kill a Panther with 160 damage so on average, it will take a minimum of 4.3 * 6 = 25.8s to kill a Panther assuming all shots hit. The Panther will bounce some shots though, 53.8% chance to bounce. So that means our 6 shots to kill averages to 10 shots to kill a Panther at long range (6 * 1.538 = 9.2 or rounded up to 10). 10 shots to kill would mean 4.3 * 10 = 43s. The Panther is expected to bounce 3-4 shots.
As you can see, in a light box. HVAP is still bad at long ranges.
What about mid range though (20)?
HVAP pen is at 180. Pen chance is at 69.2%.
Average shots to kill is 8.
Time to kill (TTK) is 48.8s.
AP pen is at 130. Pen chance is at 50%.
Average shots to kill is 9.
TTK is 38.7s.
Near range never happens since you'll be attacking the rear but here's the math anyway.
HVAP TTK is at 42.7s
AP TTK is at 38.7s (same as near)
As you can see. At all ranges, AP outperforms HVAP in TTK at least for the Panther frontal armour. This is all in a lightbox though. It doesn't take into account moving inaccuracy where HVAP round would come out slightly ahead. In small engagements where tanks would not be on the field for long periods of time, the HVAP round might be better due to its slightly higher pen although using AP you would be able to fire 3 times where-as firing 2 HVAP which makes the differences negligible.
Shermans have radio net so what with radio net?
Assuming you don't have double Shermans. If factoring in radio net, HVAP gets a higher bonus due to its longer reload time.
HVAP reload with radio net from 6.1s becomes 5.5s.
AP reload with radio net from 4.3s average to 3.9s average.
At far range (averages).
HVAP TTK = 49.5s
AP TTK = 39s
At mid range.
HVAP TTK = 44s
AP TTK = 35.1s.
What about 2x Shermans with radio net?
Alright, so you're spending more resources to take out a Panther and two vet 1 boys at that too. How does double the HVAP and double the AP compare?
At far range.
HVAP shots to kill = 9, 2 shots every time so still need 5 from each Sherman. 5 * 5.5s = 27.5s TTK.
AP shots to kill = 10, 2 shots every time so need 5 from each Sherman. 5 * 3.9 = 19.5s TTK.
At mid range.
HVAP shots to kill = 8, need 4 from each. 4 * 5.5s = 22s TTK.
AP shots to kill = 9, still need 5 from each. Time does not change. 19.5s TTK.
Alright so thus far this is some pretty dumb math. It's all averages and in CoH2, due to RNG chance, you should always take the route that gives you better odds. In the long run, using AP over HVAP is always the better choice. You can stack combined arms on top of the radio net bonuses or use it as it is but I doubt TTK differences between AP and HVAP will change much even if you fire faster. AP is always better.
Any buff for HVAP would be good and welcomed. HVAP pen average TTK at far range is 9 shots and if pen of HVAP was buffed then it could be 8 shots to kill like mid-range HVAP. If its at 8 shots to kill, double HVAP Shermans would be much better requiring 4 shots from each instead of 9 which would require 5 shots from 1 and 4 shots from the other, which at that point you get 10 shots from each. This is only comparing the Panther with 960hp though.
Reload time would need to be buffed to AP round times to have better performance since its the same amount of shots to kill. A damage buff without a reload buff would be better but overpowering when fielded in numbers.
Of course any buff to the 76mm Sherman would be ruin the balance of PZ4's since they would often face off against that. Perhaps removing the HVAP ability all together in favour of a timed HVAP ability like M10 or M36 with +damage is the right move here?
Tough decision to make.
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