I think it is very relevant to not just consider the stats of the Jackson, but also what it is up against.
The Jackson should absolutely dominate a p4. 4 shots 100% penetration. There is no reason why it shouldn't, it's singular purpose is that alone.
It's purpose is being the high end AT unit of USF. Allied TD pen is so high because otherwise they would not be able to fight against Tiger, KT and so on. Every other faction (beside USF) has an AT gun and normal mines to fight off medium tanks. Still fighting medium tanks is not the sole purpose of the Jackson. It's a hybrid for both mediums and heavies. The StuG is a unit designed for mediums only.
Against heavier armor, you can talk endlessly about the high penetration, but the fact is, on top of a very large bank of health, shots are going to bounce off and if you count those bounced shots as health, you are looking at a gigantic health. Compare that to the Axis perspective, where the complaint is range (don't complain about speed, because there is barely a difference if any with any vehicles that can damage it)and a player who's attention is now focused on controlling that one unit to stay 5 units out of range at all times. Closing in on a jackson might give it 1 shot where the panther can't return fire due to range. You've got a high chance that the 1 shot will bounce off like it basically never happened. The panther isn't going to bounce a shot off the jackson, the best the USF player can hope for is a missed shot. That's 4 solid shots from the panther. The Jackson needs 6 that actually penetrate. That's 6 MINIMUM. The panther is 4 MAXIMUM. Big difference.
Big difference is also the price of which Panther costs 90MP/40FU more. The chance to bounce a shot of the Jackson at range 50-60 is about 15 %. That is not a "high chance", I'd rather say it pens reliably with occasional bounces, but you should not count on the shot penetrating. That brings the Panther up by about one more shot, so it survives ~7 shots with RNG. A vetted Jackson pens a vetted Panther with 100% chance afaik.
An additional problem with the Jackson is it's ability to kite. The SU85 is a casemate which a clear drawback, the Firefly has a low ROF and is also slow, so catching it out of position can be very punishing. The Jackson? Paper armor, yes, but it is very quick so it can kite you deeper into enemy territory which is a dangerous gamble to make with your Panther.
If axis armor was bouncing shots off the front of allied armor as much as allied armor bounces shots off of axis armor, then I would understand the claims of Jackson being unfair.
The only unit against Allied TDs bounce with decent chances are the Panther (if Allied TD is unvetted) and heavies. If you only compare medium tanks at max range, OST P4 gets about 8% higher pen chance than the other way around. This decreases at lower ranges basically same pen chances. Not considering any abilities, the standard P4 gets a slight advantage in exchange for a slightly higher price. Seems fair to me. Allied high tier TD pen all mediums at 100%, and so does the Panther with Allied mediums.
Regardless of how much higher the penetration is on an allied weapon in comparison to an axis weapon, it barely matters because the two weapons are up against very different challenges. A pak isn't going to bounce shells off of allied armor(some of the UKF stuff will bounce). The 57mm even with higher pen will frequently bounce on heavy armor. To me, the additional penetration doesn't matter/compare to the pak, because the pak isn't facing any armor it can't take on or "zone out". The pak is an EFFECTIVE anti tank weapon. The 57mm is an ineffective anti tank weapon. The Jackson, while still not being as perfect as stock axis solutions is the most effective USF has. Reducing this specialty weapon to be less effective at what it hard counters doesn't seem wise to me.
The 57mm with high pen rounds is about as good as a normal ATG regarding penetration. But about twice the fire rate. So if you have ammo and micro, it is a very good unit for the price. If not you can basically throw if away if the mid game is over. I am also very divided about the units design, mostly because it forces USF into a high pen Jackson. Not sure if reworking the 57mm is the way to go in order to bring the Jackson down a little, because this could mean that the USF MUST go Captain every game.
And a final comment: I'm not saying the Panther is completely UP and I also do not disagree with every single of your points, but I think your post fell a bit short on some comparisons that did not take other things into account. Panther is probably in a good state if OST T4 gets an accessibility buff and Jackson gets a nerf to one of its weaknesses, which is the point of this thread.
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