Falls lose pretty handily, obers will likely lose early considering the vet difference.
You made one massive oversight.
You did not specified distance.
Falls will lose at long range, because they are NOT long range infantry - their weapon profile, similarly to volks, allows them to position themselves at distance they would have advantage as their DPS is very good at all ranges, but not excellent at any given, like Obers long range with LMG or shocks short range.
Falls will beat without much effort guards at close range, if you test it at any other range, you put guards at favorable position.
PGs at CQC will eat guards alife while having similar menpower cost(or is it same already? I stopped keeping up with 50 guards cost changes a year), but won't stand a chance at long range.
If you are including vet for one, but not equal vet for other, you also put a bias into the comparison, sure guards will have higher vet when obers arrive, but that isn't how you should test them against each other and even if, if you go for IR STGs, Obers will roflstomp guards at CQC even at vet0.