GCS placement match stats (w/ updates)

So if you take the games where both players won a game (so as to ignore matchups that might have been determined purely by skill gap), the win rates for factions are, assuming I didn't enter anything wrong:

Code

	Ost	OKW	Soviets	USF	Brits
Count	15	37	17	25	10
Wins: 	10	25	3	11	3
Losses:	5	12	14	14	7
Win %	66,7%	67,6%	17,6%	44,0%	30,0%

Soviets looking pretty good there. Brits not too shabby either.

Korean army doubled the Soviet winrate by wining all four of his matches including both as Soviets, at least until your sorting method is applied. Then Soviets back to being on life support.

Korean army doubled the Soviet winrate by wining all four of his matches including both as Soviets, at least until your sorting method is applied. Then Soviets back to being on life support.

Him winning as soviets won't matter at all, because he won both games. I was just running the numbers on games where both players won one game, because otherwise I'd have to actually look at every single player involved and decide whether the skill gap was too high to include the games.

That said, the new games did improve stats for allies anyway as every single one of the newest 10 games was won by allies.

	Ost	OKW	Soviets	USF	Brits
Count	20	42	20	27	15
Wins: 	10	25	6	13	8
Losses:	10	17	14	14	7
Win %	50,0%	59,5%	30,0%	48,1%	53,3%

Him winning as soviets won't matter at all, because he won both games. I was just running the numbers on games where both players won one game, because otherwise I'd have to actually look at every single player involved and decide whether the skill gap was too high to include the games.

That said, the new games did improve stats for allies anyway as every single one of the newest 10 games was won by allies.

Code

	Ost	OKW	Soviets	USF	Brits
Count	20	42	20	27	15
Wins: 	10	25	6	13	8
Losses:	10	17	14	14	7
Win %	50,0%	59,5%	30,0%	48,1%	53,3%

Faymonville Approach and Kholodny really good for UKF (maybe allies in general). I haven't looked at any of the replays but think a mortar pit on Faymonville could cover a huge chunk of the map from just outside of the base.

Him winning as soviets won't matter at all, because he won both games. I was just running the numbers on games where both players won one game, because otherwise I'd have to actually look at every single player involved and decide whether the skill gap was too high to include the games.

That said, the new games did improve stats for allies anyway as every single one of the newest 10 games was won by allies.

Code

	Ost	OKW	Soviets	USF	Brits
Count	20	42	20	27	15
Wins: 	10	25	6	13	8
Losses:	10	17	14	14	7
Win %	50,0%	59,5%	30,0%	48,1%	53,3%

I'm a bit lazy >.> Could you provide matchup-oriented stats, thx!

I'm a bit lazy >.> Could you provide matchup-oriented stats, thx!

		Ost Sov	Ost USF	Ost Brits	OKW Sov	OKW USF	OKW Brits
Wins		3	5	2		11	9	5
Losses		2	5	3		4	8	5
Axis Win %	60,0%	50,0%	40,0%		73,3%	52,9%	50,0%

i got a few wins with soviet and a few with usa. its alot more difficult to win but games are still winable. dunno if game is balanced in this mod tho

Updated, added the last 3 games (up to 113 now).

Also, added the other replays (all 110 that are available) for more commander choices.

Here are some map stats (couldn't add those to the original post as it got too long...)

Crossing in the Woods

	ostheer	soviets	okw	usf	ukf
picked	10	10	16	10	6
won	8	3	10	4	1
won(%)	80	30	63	40	17

Crossroads

	ostheer	soviets	okw	usf	ukf
picked	11	13	27	19	6
won	8	4	12	11	3
won(%)	73	31	44	58	50

Faymonville Approach

	ostheer	soviets	okw	usf	ukf
picked	12	10	21	10	13
won	6	2	12	5	8
won(%)	50	20	57	50	62

Kholodny Ferma (Summer)

	ostheer	soviets	okw	usf	ukf
picked	6	4	8	6	4
won	1	4	3	4	2
won(%)	17	100	38	67	50

That's it for the placement matches, thanks to the players and A_E!

More thorough analysis of the meta (much) later...

Updated, added the last 3 games (up to 113 now).

Also, added the other replays (all 110 that are available) for more commander choices.

Here are some map stats (couldn't add those to the original post as it got too long...)

Crossing in the Woods

	ostheer	soviets	okw	usf	ukf
picked	10	10	16	10	6
won	8	3	10	4	1
won(%)	80	30	63	40	17

Crossroads

	ostheer	soviets	okw	usf	ukf
picked	11	13	27	19	6
won	8	4	12	11	3
won(%)	73	31	44	58	50

Faymonville Approach

	ostheer	soviets	okw	usf	ukf
picked	12	10	21	10	13
won	6	2	12	5	8
won(%)	50	20	57	50	62

Kholodny Ferma (Summer)

	ostheer	soviets	okw	usf	ukf
picked	6	4	8	6	4
won	1	4	3	4	2
won(%)	17	100	38	67	50

That's it for the placement matches, thanks to the players and A_E!

More thorough analysis of the meta (much) later...

Fantastic Siphon X great work, I will now be compiling all results, applying modifiers for ELO and points accordingly, this will then work in combination with the captured automatch ranks to produce a tournament seeding. I will be releasing the provisional seeds today.

I however urge all players to ensure passports are sent in, this is a tournament that ends in a live venue final, being a paas port holder is vital. If you don't have one yet email me on redditcoh@gmail.com to say how you plan to get one and how long it will take.

Updated with the final rulings on certain games.

Also, unpinned and decolored...

Has the poor performance of SOV indicated to the patch makers that they need a bit of help?

Has the poor performance of SOV indicated to the patch makers that they need a bit of help?

You mean like the 100% win rate at Kholodny Ferma (Summer)

You mean like the 100% win rate at Kholodny Ferma (Summer)

Look at the rest of the maps. And 4 games is nowhere near enough of a sample size.

Look at the rest of the maps. And 4 games is nowhere near enough of a sample size.

and you check here where Soviet have the highest winrates 70%...
https://www.coh2.org/topic/60897/gcs-main-round-stats-w-updates

Samples are to small for any safe conclusions.

and you check here where Soviet have the highest winrates 70%...
https://www.coh2.org/topic/60897/gcs-main-round-stats-w-updates

Samples are to small for any safe conclusions.

Samples are too small you're right. I guess the stats from normal ranked games rather than tournament play would be a better indicator but I'm not sure if those can be seen anywhere?

Has the poor performance of SOV indicated to the patch makers that they need a bit of help?

Well, most if not all games here were done with an earlier version of the GCS patch. For the main event the current v1.4 version is used which indeed brought a few buffs to the Maxim.

Samples are too small you're right. I guess the stats from normal ranked games rather than tournament play would be a better indicator but I'm not sure if those can be seen anywhere?

You can check out coh2chart. But I'd also recommend reading this article which tries to explain why coh2chart might not give you what you want if you are looking for "statistics on the true faction balance". The TL;DR version is: The problem is that the matchmaking algorithm tries to eliminate what you want to observe, so you basically mostly get an impression of how well that is working.

In reality we can't realistically quantify the faction balance. We are pretty much left with looking at different statistics without jumping to conclusions...

That is, if we are interested in this at all. That's probably kind of a controversial statement, but at the end of the day unless it is really bad, faction balance is irrelevant in most cases:

• When playing automatch games it won't matter as the matchmaking should take care of that (although you could argue that the matchmaker has it easier when the factions are balanced).
  
• For tournements it doesn't matter as long as you play at least BO3 rounds (actually, with proper rules you can even have BO1 rounds; ok, viewing might be more entertaining when factions are balanced...)
  

All statistics have strength and weaknesses. The good thing about this data set (unlike the current main round statistics) is that players are probably more on an equal skill level. The number of samples isn't great, yes. It's not totally horrible either, so at least for certain matchups and maps the numbers could actually indicate some trends (notice the vague wording ).

The issues, apart from the less than stellar sample size are the map choices which will certainly skew the numbers (while it is a bit too early for definite statements, it is noteworthy that the current main event stats include several top players that feel more comfortable playing SOV so that Soviets were picked more often, as was Kholodny Ferma). If you are interested in the effect of maps you can check out earlier breakdowns like this one for ESL.

What I personally suspect to be a very relevant factor is also that the meta hasn't settled. This tournament happens shortly after the WBP so the meta changes coming out of that patch are not clear. On top of that, it's not even WBP but the GSC which likely most players haven't tested much if at all.

So, basically the game dynamics have been shaken up and have not settled yet. It might very well be that a faction might seem very weak now, but that eventually people will figure out ways to play in a different way so that it might end up being considered OP...

Thanks for the detailed reply. I do main Soviets and they don't feel too bad to me to be honest, I'm just wary of how the Maxim changes will feel but to be honest a wider arc machine gun might actually be quite nice on some occasions. They seem to have had nothing but nerfs for months certain builds work exceptionally well against them in their current state.