You get T2 after some conscripts rather than first thing. It gives you more things that are good at holding territory rather than things that are good at taking it. The Maxim soft counter to an MG 42 involves either flanking around the arc or distracting the MG42 with another unit, which is why it's a soft counter (previously it was basically a hard counter in that you could just plonk it in an MG 42's arc and wait for it to win). Once it gets the pin off, you're laughing. The ZiS, like any AT gun, requires support but its barrage is reasonably good at making an MG move so you can move conscripts in against it.
Yeah, if you see more than 2 MGs, the T1->T4 option is basically the obvious one, since you have a ton of hard counters to MGs and more things that'll actually kill the MG rather than just forcing it off. If you see 1 or 2, tier 2 is reasonably good.
I think the increased fuel cost is a red herring, given scout cars cost fuel as well.
Yes, I agree. The only points I was trying to make were that the MG42 is overperforming (this is partially map dependent, the recent Minsk changes help in this respect, and partially conscripts not being rewarded enough for flanking one) and that if your opening conscripts have been forced off by 2x MG42 openings and you've lost map control, then T1 is the far superior option. If your conscript opening has even or better map control, then T2 is great for consolidating. It's still rare that I see any Soviets build T2 over T1 though. Even with T1 M3s, most decent German players know to not leave their MG42s alone without a Gren nearby.