I find this difficult to believe, stated as simply as this. They only cost 30MP more than cons: how are they "not worth it"? The ability to buy a flamethrower on them alone is worth more than that - after all, they only cost 45MP per model, while CE's cost 50 each and have much less combat and staying power.
Well, you can jump on pretty much any high level player stream and ask them directly.
That 30mp is bigger then you think. Look what 20mp reduction did to pgrens. Look what 15mp increase did to volks and their strength.
And I don't need them for flamer.
See, this is yet another case of role overlap. Yes, its useful, but its hardly a reason to get them, because CE already cover that. Pair of CEs will do incomparably better job at pretty much everything and it won't even cost you more as you start with one.
Reinforce cost aren't really that relevant, because you can use cons for merge.
In fact, you SHOULD cons for merge CEs to get them vet asap by allowing them to stay on field, cons will vet up anyway, they won't go crap, but they'll vet.
Same with the penals, they were supported by merge cons so they can stay on field, these strats still weren't effective at all vs better players, because later on penals became irrelevant, not being able to keep up with long range firepower of axis and being squishy compared to everyone else.
What I think you're ignoring is the OTHER costs of T1. Going T1 delays your AT nades or your Zis or your T-70, because all of them require the fuel you just spent on T1. Therefore, the failure of this strategy is not necessarily simply because Penals are not able to whip Obers with one hand tied behind their backs; there are other relevant factors.
That isn't really an issue as T1 is a shock tier, units that are easily countered, but should be very potent when they arrive, you should be able to utilize their shock value to get ground and deny resources to opponent. Utilized well, you shouldn't have problems to rush for T-70 or SU-76. Lack of AT in the tier isn't really a problem, there are plenty of doctrines to help that and going T2 isn't really a set back like it was pre sov tech redesign. Going for T1 will dely AT nades by 30-50 seconds, kubel won't do much in that time and you'll still have them before 222 arrives.
Thing is, not a single of these units does that now. These are shock units that don't pack a punch and can't take one. Penals are pinnacle of it since once a blue moon we might see M3 and still some players play an old sniper+guard motor combo.
And its not about penals vs obers, they don't even trade efficiently vs volks or grens.
Penals can't stand up to cheaper squads, let alone more expensive ones. Pfussies walk over them so hard its not even funny for mere 20 more mp, but then again, its almost the same with cons and volks now.