Wanted to join in and agree with Hans. I watched this replay and the one he posted and played against Aimstrong:
http://www.coh2.org/replay/39117/hans-vs-aimstrong
The difference is clear. In this match, Hans lost far too many squads. The opening with 2 or 3 REs and then some Rifles is very strong against Ostheer since their Grens are not very good against the USF infantry units and normally never reach the numbers to keep up with the territory trading. USF presence is incredibly strong in both early games and in the one on Semoskiy Winter Hans kept his units around and alive to snowball the automatic early game advantage into late game.
Here, however, the advantage was lost in the mid game. Tiger tank and ofc the Grens with 1919s which Hans occasionally dropped and which saved Aimstrong a lot of munitions made the late game impossible to win. In addition, Aimstrongs use of the sniper was more efficient in this game (although I still can't comprehend the micro disaster that let to the loss for the first sniper here... just retreat him lol) than in the other, where the sniper imo didn't really do much at all.
It is fairly save to say that, given two players with high skill, USF is stronger than Ostheer in the early game in 1v1. The question is simply whether or not the USF player can transition into late game with the advantage intact. Compare the two replays and you will see the difference.
Also keep in mind that floating 400+ fuel is not the standard strategy for Axis... Normally you will see Axis vehicles and tanks much earlier than in those Aimstrong games where he waited for the Tiger.