I think these stats are all fake
please elaborate
Sorry but no.
All this statistics does is show the win ratio for all factions and that's it. You can't read game balance from these statistics due to the fact that although the size of the samples is equal, you can't guarantee that quality of these samples is equal as well. Top 200 of OKW players maybe be slightly more skilled than first 200 of USF players. What's more you can't even provide that each match will be against equally skilled opponents all the time because auto match will expand its brackets when no suitable opponent is found within specific period of time. I fought against JellyDOnut once and I don't have to tell you how this game ended due to skill level difference between us. It is quite common to get lower skilled opponent in a match up and it's quite common that your opponent will be much more skilled. The number of equal games I had is quite low. I am pretty sure it's the same when you're top 200. Maybe you get less skilled opponents more often because 200 players that's not that high number and they won't be able to play any games at all if match making only paired them against other top 200 player every time.
Also you can't guarantee that none of this data wasn't affected by balance differences, for examples maybe OKW win ratio would have been much lower if it wasn't for over performing Obersoldaten or Kubel Wagon, etc.
What we have here is a classic example of interpretation of the data to suit your need. First thing they are going to warn you against on every Statistics lecture.
Edit:
One more thing. Test sample is not even big enough to safely draw any conclusions.
Oz, we do not have all the data that you wish to see, you can ask Relic o please hand them over nicely.
But i think straight up ignoring all this data is unreasonable unless we are sure that it has been fabricated (which i doubt.. who would take all this time just to fake some numbers and charts).
On the subject sampling.. I think having the top 200 players of each faction is a good sample group and size. True, we do not know the average ELO of these pools, but we can assume that top 200 players are fairly skilled and not newbies. I would argue that using random sampling for research in drug testing, public safety, etc., are needed, but not so much in this game. Competitive games usually balance to top-tier play, so having a healthy sample of the top 200 should be sufficient. Having random sampling, or a larger sample size would mess up some of the results and it would be more difficult to assume why the numbers are so. Top 200 players are ranked as such because they have adequately mastered the mechanics and units of their respective factions. People rank 200> may have L2P difficulties; We do not know if these players have trouble because they have not practiced enough, or if it really is a balance issue.
SO in short, we do not have all the numbers. That is up to Relic to release. We do not have the whole picture, but i believe we have a nice blueprint for discussion and debate.
Things i would like to see:
1. Average ELO for each top 200 bloc in their respective factions
2. Like and said (great idea!), it would be nci to know the winrates of games lasting in 15 min, 20min, 25, min etc..
3. win rates on specific maps, which would be extremely interesting
You are right and wrong at the same time.
The test sample, in this case, is in fact, too small. A Test sample needs be somewhere ~1.000 to be accurate.
If you have a sample of ~1k then every other sample higher than that, 10k, 100k will change or deviate the 1k statistic by roughly x<2% (at most, it's actually closer to 0 < x < 1 ).
I am not saying that having 1000+ sample is bad, i actually would love if we had data for many things. Having a large sample size is necessary for seeing if specific health plans work, if a certain medication works, if cameras decrease accidents (more of a time lapse, but eh), etc. I would like to coment that having a huge sample size would be nice, but it would probably be difficult to draw some conclusions from it. WE do not know if these players are newbies, have L2P issues, or what not. The players may be losing game because they have not utilized the strengths of their armies well enough.
I think looking a high-level players and their experiences with the game is good for balancing such as adjusting units here and there. Balancing using a large sample size of players ranging from the pro to the fresh newbie is good too though. These could lead to general "quality of life" changes that could make it easier for players.
in conclusion, having a smaller sample size of top level players is helpful when it comes to balancing, but having a large sample size of many players is also helpful for general "ease of use" mechanics. But for now, in the context of "balance", i think it is more helpful to stick with the top 200.
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