Hi and welcome to the club.
I agree on point that 4 players have higher chances against forward HQ, but in your theory you're putting 4 coordinated players on allied side and 4 autistic players as axis.
For example here's what I see as result in your scenarios:
You've left your allies outnumbered. They got defeated and had to stop their push and retreat. Then enemy came for you, and you had to retreat all the way through their lines, losing couple of squads. Instead of coordination you let your enemy to beat you part by part.
Again, if allies is so coordinated (say, they playing as arranged team) then why you assume that axis can't react in same coordinated manner? I know, it is somewhat map dependent, because, for example, on Vielsam indeed it is hard throw your army from one side of map to another.
But here also comes another problem. If I play vanila faction I have to retreat to my HQ in base sector. If I'm trying to fight on flank that is far from my HQ, my army will spend 90% of game time walking rather than fighting.
Encircle how? He has healing+retreat point nearby. He will attack you constantly and get back for healing and reinforcing, while your army will go thin.
I play mostly soviet. As a soviet player I have no handheld AT and have quite crappy stock vehicles which I won't use unless I'm already ahead. So I'm very dependant on my AT guns in order to fend off Luchs or Flak HT, untill I will able to use my call-ins. Meanwhile my enemy have retreat+healing nearby and don't have to rely on team weapons with setup time and restricted arc of fire. Tell me how you call me more moblile with these AT guns?
This contradicts your scenario #1 where you was attacking their base sector.
Again. If allied players so smart that they focus 3v1 on one side, then what the hell other 2 axis players doing?
Generally, I agree with you. You have to be coordinated as Allies in order to win.
But that's just means that 4v4 format is more demanding in terms of skill for Allies. The fact that 4v4 AT is somewhat balanced is another confirmation of that.
I've used that graph in another thread, but it fits here too, I guess:
Do you mind elaborating on your graph a bit for me?
You have a bell curve with a y axis of number of players vs skill. How exactly are you measuring skill? Furthermore Gaussians represent probability so I'm not sure what your y axis is supposed to mean. Then you have a CDF over the top of which does represent a probability being chance of winning but that makes no sense at least from your CDF perspective.
I'm really lost in your statistical analysis, Some sight on your process and data would be helpful