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Penal battalions. In the current patch, they overperform heavily. The winning meta for SU players currently is to blob Penals en-masse, and it works almost every time.
I took to the COH2 Cheat Commands mod to test my hypothesis in singleplayer, versus Expert AI. For each of my tests, I tested each changed variable a total of four times, twice with me playing the Penals, twice with me playing the opposition. Tests were conducted with unupgraded troops, unless stated otherwise.
I used OKW units as a point of comparison (though I also used US riflemen). From OKW, the only infantry units that could compete with the Penals were Obersoldaten and Panzerfusiliers.
Sturmpioneers came close-ish, but overall are unable to compete (the assumption being a PvP situation against a player of equal skill). I accepted that, since Sturmpioneers are not meant to be frontline infantry and thus have a host of other abilities such as building and repairing which balance them out.
Next up was Obersoldaten. In an equal 4v4 fight, the Obersoldaten won almost every time. However, Obersoldaten require a base structure that costs 120 fuel and 200 MP where the Penals need only a cheap structure that costs 160 MP and 10 fuel. Additionally, the Obers themselves cost 400 MP, to the Penals' 300 MP. Thus, you can get 4 Penal squads for the cost of 3 Ober squads, and in that situation the Penals won every time. I conducted the same test twice more, the first time giving the three Ober squads infrared STG-44s (total: 180 muni), the second time giving them MG-34s. In both scenarios, the four Penal squads beat the three Ober squads. Also, bear in mind that SU Penal squads have a satchel ability for 45 muni, and the OKW Ober squads have a bundled grenade ability also for 45 muni. In most situations, satchel > bundled, especially against vehicles.
Come on, it can't be that bad. What about Panzerfusiliers (290 MP, requires Brekathrough Doctrine)? Well, at long range, unsurprisingly the Penals lost quite heavily. However, in tests where the Penals were allowed to close the distance, the Penals quickly gave back the damage they'd taken and melted the Pzf squads. Furthermore, Pfz have only a weak normal grenade ability which costs 30 muni to the satchel's 45, where the satchel is demonstrably superior even with its timer. And more to the point, Pfz are doctrinal (requiring the Breakthrough doctrine) and require 3 CP, where Penals are non-doctrinal and available from the start.
Perhaps I am taking the wrong approach. What about vehicles? Well, two Penal squads each with one PTRS-41 rifle were able to defeat a Pzkpfw II Luchs (260 MP, 60 fuel) every time. The Puma (320 MP, 70 fuel) does not contend. The Pzkpfw IV (360 MP, 150 fuel) lost every time to a mere three Penal squads. The Panther likewise lost every time to the same opponent, on some occasions even losing to a mere two squads. Upgrading the Panther (490 MP, 200 fuel) with a pintle-MG42 enabled it to almost defeat three Penal squads... but not quite, not even once. And that's ignoring the 45-muni satchel which takes a load of health off any vehicle and disables the engine (afterall, a good player won't let you near enough to use the satchel on a vehicle). That leaves the Konigstiger (720 MP, 280 fuel) which was, with the pintle-MG42 upgrade barely able to hold off 5 Penal squads when it was lucky, and didn't die. That's ignoring that the Konigstiger is probably slow enough that a Penal squad can run up to it and slap a satchel on it, which takes about 1/6 of the Konigstiger's health away. Ignoring Command Panther (similar/same results as regular Panther), that only leaves the Flammpanzer Hetzer (280 MP, 100 fuel) which was barely able to hold off two Penal squads. I am ignoring the Jagdtiger and the Jagdpanzer, since they are TDs and thus are obviously not a counter to Penals. Exhausting all other vehicles, that leaves the Sturmtiger (560 MP, 160 fuel, requires Elite Armoured doctrine). Against noobs, or in a surprise role, it can wipe a few Penal squads. However a good player can outmanoeuvre the Sturmtiger with his Penals.
Realistically though, you're not going to give your Penals PTRS-41 rifles. You're going to use your own armour and AT guns to deal with armour. Penals are most potent in the early game, where they're easily accessible and no real counter to them is available.
I even pitted 4 Penal squads against 4 US Riflemen (280 MP). Penals obviously won every time. I gave the US riflemen a BAR each (+240 muni), and the Penals still won.
The most obvious counter, MGs... Firstly there's mortars to contend with, and ROK CEs in an M3. Failing that, you only need one Penal squad to flank, and suddenly you've lost your MG (and any nearby squads) to a 45-muni satchel. The satchel has a 4 second fuse, and it takes 3.5 seconds to pack up an MG-42 or MG-34. Eek. Not to mention that the MG-34 is a pile of fertiliser and leaves the OKW without a real MG. Basically, there are plenty of cost-effective counters to the MG, as it should be, (arguably the only real counter to the Penals), and once the MG is down it's Penal funtimes. We could go back and forth with the counter to the counter, and the counter-counter-counter, but the problem is that the enemy can devote most of his force to Penal spamming, but you are at a huge disadvantage if you only field MGs.
TL;DR the SU Penal infantry seem to overperform for their cost. Their only counters are much more expensive and less available, and often locked behind a Commander. They are highly effective versus infantry, and their satchels lend them potency versus buildings and structures also, even against vehicles in a nasty situation. Your only hope as an Axis player of wiping them is relying on rocket artillery such as Panzerwerthers and Stuka zu Fuß, especially given the impotence of the LeIG and LeFH versus infantry. It is apparent that the majority of SU players share my viewpoint, as most SU players I have seen lately have relied heavily on spamming Penals.