So here you go (review from your initially posted replay):
INTRODUCTION:
General information: Kholodny Ferma Winter is characterised by deep snow and blizzard wherefore won/lost engagements have a huge impact which is generally characteristic for 1v1 but even more recogniseable in this map. If you lose too many engagements your foe can securely diminish your territory and gain more ressources than you. If he knows how to use deep snow, blizzards and other factors to hinder your expansion it will result in an early GG.
Therefore Ostheer should be played defensively and carefully securing at least one VP and one fuel point (usually one munition point either, this map is an exception though). Once you lost a decisive engagement that results into losing primary territory it will be hard to reconquest your primary territory especially as Ostheer and especially on this map. Also never overextend and never initiate risky attacks!
You had to play on the Eastern Side in this map which is arguably better than the Western Side.
Concerning Doctrines: Your foe had only non meta and rather underpowered doctrines of which only one had a useful call in: Advanced Warfare Tactics with a single T34/85 call in. When watching his loadout you should have kept in mind that he will use buildings to spawn Partisans in case he went for them. Furthermore you have to keep in mind that Radio Interception permits your foe to prepare for upcoming units.
You had one meta and strong doctrine (Mechanised Assault), one non meta and decent one (Mobile Defence) and one which is neither meta nor decent (German Mechanised Troops).
You chose Mechanised Assault and your foe Partisan Tactics.
Conclusion: From these information I draw the conclusion that you have done something wrong because Mechanised Assault is supposed to completely destroy Partisan Tactics provided both of you had an equal skill level. I can imagine you have gone the wrong build order. I guess we will see later.
EARLY GAME:
You instantly picked up Mechanised Assault and called in one Sturmgrenadier squad to deny your opponent the northern fuel point which can be risky but also successful when your opponent does not expect this move or wants to capture southern fuel. Your opening move turned out well for you. Once you have captured the northern fuel you went to the munition and tried to deny it. You noticed that Maxim too late but it was possible to know it will appear.
Every time you play versus Soviets make sure you check his base through the fog of war. You can perceive his T1/T2 buildings as dark basement they cause as soon as their construction begins. The same applies with T3/T4 buildings. Keep an eye at this dark basement in case you spot it since you must know whether he wants to trap you or really techs up. If XP arises you know he completed the building. If XP does not arise and you maybe hear how he cancels the construction he wanted to trap you.
If you knew Maxims were coming you should have sprinted away with Sturmgrenadiers. Your Grenadiers should not have captured in the north but should have gone to the church while your Pioneers relocate to the north and your Assault Grenadiers to the south where they excel in close ranged combat and can hide behind hedges instead of occupying the church.
After having engaged the maxim you reacted properly by retreating instantly and you built a mortar which excels quite well versus Maxims with high fire rate and decent damage. Clumping up Maxim crew members will be an advantage for you too.
When this one Conscript squad captured your strategic point in the south you have set up your MG42 incorrectly because its arc of fire did not cover the side from VP which was being decaptured. So you knew there was a squad but did not prepare for a possible flank from this side. A flank which was then executed successfully due to your mistake.
I think after this engagement your MG42 would have been better used by defending the north since your Sturmgrenadiers would have conquered the southern fuel and it was obvious that your foe will strike in the north sooner or later not only due to fuel but also due to VPs. Your Grenadiers should have captured the church as I said before to cover your mortar. You should have built another Grenadier squad to support your Sturmgrenadiers in the south to expulse these Conscripts. If not doing this you will struggle to take south whilst losing the north.
THE DECISIVE MISTAKE:
But instead you tech up with such a tiny army that will be barely able to hold your territory for long. I think teching up in this point of the game instead of building another Grenadier squad (that came after you teched up) or weapon team and waiting for call ins was the mistake that cost you the game. At this point of the game teching up would not have you brought any advantageous units:
1.) Panzergrenadiers can be strong in close-mid range but are costly and fragile
2.) 222 can harass your enemy effectively but dies very quickly to AT nades, AT guns (your foe had already built up T2 for it) and mines
3.) 251 can be used effectively if you have more 3+ Grenadier squads to push him but you had not enough push power at your disposal
So teching up was, well, just unnecessary and a huge setback.
Then my claims became true: Your foe could capture the north where no MG42 was positioned and you struggled to claim ground in the south.
To prevent that not teching but waiting for call ins and building more units from T1 (Grenadiers or mortar teams) are required. You have a call in available at 3 CPs which is perfect for either repelling the Soviets from the north or from the south: the Mechanised Storm Group. Since you know he can have ZiS guns at the field do not charge in range of AT nading Conscripts and micro it appropriately. Rush in when you engage Combat Engineers only in order to wipe them and retreat if it is too dangerous of course.
Then you should have waited for a Stug E call in to exercise more pressure on your foe and to let him bleed hard. Of course never expose your Stug E to ZiS guns and AT nades.
You would have prevented the insane fuel income and armor advantage from your foe by calling in these two units instead of teching up. Their harassment potential is pretty high with deep snow, blizzards and many LOS blockers available.
Let's come back to your game: After building 251 and several engagements you decided to tech up again. This ultimately broke your neck since you should have known that you will have an enormous disadvantage concerning armor in numbers because you could not establish much map control and you would have lost territory swifly once you captured it since your foe has already begun to build T3 and had more units than you on the field. You also split your forces up which I do not recommend if you want to capture at least one VP and fuel. Send your forces together!
And again my prediction was correct: Your foe built a T70, destroyed your 251 and can harass you further resulting into ultimate map control for your foe and delaying your first piece of armor by a decent amount of time.
From this point on it was clear that you will lose the game and therefore I stop my replay analysis here.
FINAL CONCLUSION:
You teched up at a stage in the game were it was completely useless and brought you huge disadvantages. You should have built more T1 units and called in the mentioned units to make use of your doctrine and to gain decisive advantages concerning ressource income. Then you should have waited for Tiger. Whether you need AT guns before or after the Tiger is dependent on your abilities and the abilities of your foe. Furthermore, consider the tactical analysis.
I hope I could help. Feel free to ask me further questions.