FIFA World Cup™ 2014

Jump back to quoted post10 Jun 2014, 09:16 AMThe_Riddler

I did not just provide that statistic, I also mentioned several reasons for the excistence of that particular statistic. Next to that, there is a strong significant statistical relation between past and future events in sports. This is the most important factor bookmakers use to assess the chance of a certain outcome. Aside from the spread between chances and odds, if statistics of past sport events did not matter, predicted chances and thereby odds would be false and no bookmaker would still be in business.

Therefore, logic dictates that Germany is not a favourite, despite of your "feelings of confidence".

Jump back to quoted post10 Jun 2014, 17:43 PMAmiPolizeiFunk

My pleasure

24 entrants already! It's on

Jump back to quoted post10 Jun 2014, 18:46 PMAmiPolizeiFunk

Spain has dominated world soccer for the past decade. Before that it was France. Before that Brazil. Germany has always been Bride's Maid. How many teams are going for 6? Just Brazil and Italy, right? Oops my bad Italy only has 4.

Three times in my life I have been in the city where the final was played.

Rome in 1990.
Los Angeles in 1994.
Berlin in 2006.

All three times I visited the stadium on the day. In Rome I snuck in after the final whistle and was part of the celebration.

I consider that a charmed life

Man Group G... I want all 4 teams to go through

Jump back to quoted post10 Jun 2014, 17:10 PMDucati

Odds and predictions for international football are at best, educated guesses. For statistics to become useful in predicting future events you need a large and current sample. Teams don't play each other frequently enough to built reliable data. For example, take Germany vs Brazil - 2 games between the 2 sides over 9 years. Every condition/factor that would influence results are different from back then. As far as world cups being played in central/south America the sample size is 4.

The world cup could be won by one of a handful of team. Its going to come down to who's peaking as a team, the referees, injuries and luck.

Jump back to quoted post10 Jun 2014, 18:46 PMAmiPolizeiFunk

Spain has dominated world soccer for the past decade. Before that it was France. Before that Brazil. Germany has always been Bride's Maid. How many teams are going for 6? Just Brazil and Italy, right? Oops my bad Italy only has 4.

Three times in my life I have been in the city where the final was played.

Rome in 1990.
Los Angeles in 1994.
Berlin in 2006.

All three times I visited the stadium on the day. In Rome I snuck in after the final whistle and was part of the celebration.

I consider that a charmed life

Jump back to quoted post10 Jun 2014, 19:16 PMThe_Riddler

Your assumption that the assessment of the chances of one specific country versus another specific country can only be made based on their previous encounters is entirely false. If Germany and Brazil would end up playing eachother in the semi-finals, one would weigh in every single match both of these countries have ever played, including the matches they did not play versus eachother. Obviously, recent matches, non-friendly matches, matches away et cetera weigh in a lot more, compared to their counterparts. This creates that statistically significant sample size.

And indeed, all 32 countries have a chance of winning the World Cup, as there is no country whose chance is 0% or 100%. Brazil's chance is roughly 20% making it an 80% chance they do not win. This makes Brazil a heavy underdog to the field, however, Brazil is still the favourite, given only one country can win.

Jump back to quoted post10 Jun 2014, 20:34 PMAmiPolizeiFunk

MB, I've lived in Germany for 10 years. In that time I've watched lovely young Germans cry as their teams lose in 2 world cups and 2 euro cups. All four times we had great chances.

Last WC victory for Germany 24 years ago? That's a drought! Biggest moment of pride was Bayern with the trifecta last year (ChampionsLeague , Bundes, and Pokal). Other than that, the national team has let us down, right before the ring and the kiss.