OPs thesis is right, just the argumentation is garbage.
This thread made me remind pripyat summer, where if you started at north, it was already 80% you'll win. Fun times.
Exactly.
Unless the map is 100% symetrical, you can't expect a "perfect" balanced map. Taking as example Kharkov, that's a map on which one side has an easier cutoff vs a bit closer to the vp aproach.