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I'll try and answer the questions you stated in order.
TWP currently in live is a 6 second duration ability that applies a stun to the target as well as 100% of the shell damage if it penetrates. The shell must be fired within the 6 seconds to apply the stun and doesn't apply if it bounces. So no it is not currently a targeted ability. In the few instances of me watching your pak40 specifically the opportunity I mentioned where the tiger was infront of it the command was not given to the pak.
I understand your decision to move for the flanks. The cutoff for the east is semi near mid though, and it must be defended if you wish to attach the south. I agree with you that your move to the flanks was acceptable but on your cutoff as the east is where you need to be setup inorder to hold the south.
It could be argued that your midgame float DID cost you the game, however it is not entirely that single point that cost you this. You had a single guard squad which was the largest problem for me. Guards are both AI and light AT as well as AT disable. Having 2 guards is exponentially better than having 1. I.e. Double AT guns can destroy a stock medium tank in 2 bursts where a single AT gun takes 4 bursts, even though it is only 1 less AT gun. 1*1=2 2*2=4 etc. Ask me to clarify this if this doesn't make sense.
The other part of the reason that I now know that you were lacking knowledge of mechanized assualt. Being unprepared for the StuG E spam when your opponet has not been cut off plus the fact you were cutoff multiple times in the early game led to a significant alpha damage spike on your army. An amount that was not immediatly dealt which led to squad wipes, bleed and eventual loss. The same problem with your earlier guards was then applied to your AT gun situation. You side teched for a zis as it was mandatory however bled so much you only had 1 and because the outgoing damage could not overcome 3 StuG Es even in direct fire of the zis, you just lost your zis gun. It should also be noted that you lost your 1st SU-76 because you brought it into combat against StuG Es and pak40s when only at 3/4 HP.
I feel different about your early game than you do. You were cut off multiple times where he was not, this led to a disadvantage on your part. However, just prior to the StuG Es coming out you managed to get multiple squad wipes in quick succession. I believe it was 4 or 5 and it was a massive momentum swing. Had you known of the coming StuG Es I believe this is where you would've turned the match. Preping for the StuG Es with another SU-76 or side tech for zis guns.
As for army composition, yes it was well rounded but it lacked quantity of the quality. Meaning that while guard selection was a fantastic choice, only having 1 instead of 2 hurt your overall performance. Apologies for not making that more clear.
As stated above, this loss was more due to lack of knowledge of mechanized as well as quantity of squads in comparison to your opponet. Meaning that while yes a guard squad can deter a single StuG E from a garrison, a single guard squad will not deter 3 of them. This combined with other more minor flaws such as squad preservation, the loss of your squad car instantly and the 1st SU-76 put you far enough back recovery became extremely difficult.
Also note that this is the strongest ostheer strategy arguably for this exact reason. Overruning your opponet mid game with mass StuG Es into Tiger. You were at a slight disadvantage fuel wise due to the fact you had to tech.