Unfortunately, it's not consistent. It's also extremely unlikely with very slow 'ultra-heavy' vehicles, such as the JT.
Both options are consistent (no RNG), it's not reliable.
I'll say it again, the only reason this is brought now is because IL2 rocket strafe is too cheap and too reliable.
The problem in how you bring "counter play" into discussion is by the delimitation you put up. Snare can't be dodge up. Single strafe can't be destroyed realistically before they delivered their payload. A single squad of infantry can't deal with a sniper kitting constantly back, etc.
The perspective and tools when talking of counter play between a MOBA and an RTS is different. Counterplay in an RTS doesn't start when the action takes place in the screen.
PD: ram COULD be reworked but it's not a necessity (outside of removing the minus 5% mega crit). The issue is just the new Commander strafe ability in combination with it.