ESL cup statistics, part 1: Factions

Very cool post thanks. Ive read several times that allies is stronger than axis in general. This information backs that statement up(at least for the top players). OKW seems to have benefited strongly from the supposed vet fix, but dropped afterwards (last graph) anyone has theories why?

The statement that allies are stronger than axis is first of all unqualified, since it doesn't distinguish between allied factions. Second of all, it's plainly just wrong. The sample that we have for USF and UKF after the recent patch points to quite the contrary and the small sample size in itself is quite the hint of that: the best players, know the strongest faction and will choose it to win.
Even over the entire series of ESL tournaments UKF has a negative win-loss-ratio, clearly contradicting the statement that "allies are in general stronger than axis". Siphon correctly states that USF and UKF numbers are not too reliable due to the small sample. Which may as well mean that USF might have been in the same group. In fact what we saw is that only the most proficient USF players, like DevM, picked it and even he dropped it for the EU final. As noted above, the small sample size might in itself be a indicator of how the two factions perform compared to Soviets.

We should learn to make qualified statements that identify single issues and not generalise statements about balance to "Axis are stronger than Allies" or "Allies are stronger than Axis".



Huge thanks to Siphon X. for the fantastic work

Good stuff, interesting to see Soviets being picked fairly more often than USF or UKF

It should be a requirement in the rules that replays have to be uploaded.

There's all sorts of reasons for this: arbitration, casting, historical log etc.

Actually it is in the rules. Tricky to be strict on this, though, given that the most recent replay will be overwritten unless you remember to specifically save it...

Actually it is in the rules. Tricky to be strict on this, though, given that the most recent replay will be overwritten unless you remember to specifically save it...

Well then there needs to be a warning/penalty system for players not remembering to save replays. Or there should be observers in the games that can save the replays. (CoH2 has an observer system now right? )

Great work!

Let me know if you are missing any games from me. (I personally don't upload if I lost the round overall, I leave that to the victor). The upload thing has been wonky on me so that might explain why some games are missing.

Very cool post thanks. Ive read several times that allies is stronger than axis in general. This information backs that statement up(at least for the top players). OKW seems to have benefited strongly from the supposed vet fix, but dropped afterwards (last graph) anyone has theories why?

That kind of inference is not accurate or helpful. This data only refers to 1v1s on a small selection of maps. Once you start looking at larger game types or different maps those kind of blanket statements go out the window.

Great work!

Let me know if you are missing any games from me. (I personally don't upload if I lost the round overall, I leave that to the victor). The upload thing has been wonky on me so that might explain why some games are missing.

It would be great if you can find:

NA#5, Quarterfinals vs Paul
NA#9, Quarterfinals vs Dusty
NA#12, BO3 for 3rd, vs Dusty (I'm missing game 1 there, I have G2&G3).

Otherwise GG covered you pretty well

Is there any way to tell which faction was picked first?

Faction pick and counter faction pick would be interesting to know, particularly on specific maps.

Is there any way to tell which faction was picked first?

Faction pick and counter faction pick would be interesting to know, particularly on specific maps.

As far as I know that's not the case.

Reading the rules, the first pick is defined by a coin-toss the result of which isn't noted anywhere as far as I can tell. Maps are determined by a veto system, but from the rules it's not clear if the faction or the maps are fixed first.

I could check which faction was picked by the VP leader in the decider game, again not sure if that happens before or after the map is determined. Also, this will obviously reduce the sample size significantly; but yeah, that might be worthwhile to look into.

So, which was first, factions or map?

Edit:

Uhm, at least for the first two games it must be maps first (even though they are mentioned after the faction pick).

Anything else would be strange because the coin-toss winner would have to pick his faction without knowing the map, while the loser can pick his faction in the second game knowing the map...

Is there any way to tell which faction was picked first?

Faction pick and counter faction pick would be interesting to know, particularly on specific maps.

from my observations it was mostly trying to pick soviets as allies and counterpick with ostheer. if soviets didnt get picked OKW was the go to faction as axis. some excetpions due maps ofc

Brilliant job really, have you considered the idea of joining our staff at COH2.ORG and make these statistics threads real newsposts? I am sure the community would love them as well as Relic (Relic especially loves this kind of infographs with statistics )

YES YES YES. He should be something like "Lead analyser" or something.

if possible show so called eu part. Finals and best semis. Germs were domonating there.
NA games doesnt represent anything since it was maxim spam with 3 maxim bulletin on ferma most of the games.
They knew the map so they just got 3 bulletins. In automatch you dont have a single maxim bulletin.

It would be great if you can find:

NA#5, Quarterfinals vs Paul
NA#9, Quarterfinals vs Dusty
NA#12, BO3 for 3rd, vs Dusty (I'm missing game 1 there, I have G2&G3).

Otherwise GG covered you pretty well

I only saved one from paul;
USF vs OST, Airborne vs Mech Assault, OST wins, Faymonville

vs dusty,
UKF vs OST, Mobile Assault vs Mech, OST wins, Faymonville
USF vs OKW, Heavy Cav vs Scavenge, USF wins, Faymonville

vs dusty,
I'm remember kicking myself for not remembering to save the game, from memory, it was:
UKF vs OKW, Vanguard vs Elite Armored, OKW wins, Angoville

Hope this helps

Maybe its just not possible to make a good tournament with a bad game.

So no wonder tournament stats doesnt reflect balance. Factions are imbalanced maps are imbalanced - and here you have most stats for 1 map with 3 mg bulletins.

Is there any way to tell which faction was picked first?

Faction pick and counter faction pick would be interesting to know, particularly on specific maps.

Not rly.

Moreover, unless we talk about specifically about finals, the games were BO1, which means players won't play both sides and the more lucky one got to pick.

Nvm, read op again, it was about BO3, so all is fine, still more lucky one got to pick.

I only saved one from paul;
USF vs OST, Airborne vs Mech Assault, OST wins, Faymonville

vs dusty,
UKF vs OST, Mobile Assault vs Mech, OST wins, Faymonville
USF vs OKW, Heavy Cav vs Scavenge, USF wins, Faymonville

vs dusty,
I'm remember kicking myself for not remembering to save the game, from memory, it was:
UKF vs OKW, Vanguard vs Elite Armored, OKW wins, Angoville

Hope this helps

Awesome, thanks, updated!

Very cool post thanks. Ive read several times that allies is stronger than axis in general. This information backs that statement up(at least for the top players). OKW seems to have benefited strongly from the supposed vet fix, but dropped afterwards (last graph) anyone has theories why?

most of the okw's veterancy were affected by the bug. Fixing the bug gave the okw a significant boost.

but then Ivan give us the return of maxim spam.