I checked out the replays and twitch-casts for all EU & NA cups for all BO3 rounds (which means quarterfinals and up as well as the 2 qualifier rounds for the EU March monthly). I did omit the RUKAcl party final of EU#13, though.
The total number of games that went into this is 464. There are several games missing because no replays have been uploaded anywhere and games either have not been casted live or casts are no longer available. I’d guesstimate that roughly 35% of the NA and 13% of the EU games are lost (about 25% in total).
Let’s start with faction selection and win percentages for all ESL cups:
Faction | Picked | Picked (%) | Won | Won (%) |
okw | 174 | 38% | 82 | 47% |
soviets | 265 | 57% | 142 | 54% |
usf | 106 | 23% | 58 | 55% |
ostheer | 290 | 63% | 141 | 49% |
brits | 93 | 20% | 41 | 44% |
Sum: | 928 | 100% | 464 | 50% |
Next table includes only games after the most recent patch (which are cups #11-#13 and the February and March monthlies):
Faction | Picked | Picked (%) | Won | Won (%) |
okw | 61 | 41% | 31 | 51% |
soviets | 93 | 63% | 50 | 54% |
usf | 27 | 18% | 12 | 44% |
ostheer | 87 | 59% | 45 | 52% |
brits | 28 | 18% | 10 | 36% |
Sum | 296 | 100% | 148 | 50% |
Results for each matchup (all cups):
Matchup | Played | Allied won | Allies won (%) |
soviets vs. ostheer | 159 | 84 | 53% |
soviets vs. okw | 106 | 58 | 55% |
usf vs. ostheer | 67 | 36 | 54% |
usf vs. okw | 39 | 22 | 56% |
brits vs. ostheer | 64 | 29 | 45% |
brits vs. okw | 29 | 12 | 41% |
Sum | 464 | 242 | 52% |
Results for matchups (Feb/#11/#12/#13/Mar):
Matchup | Played | Allied won | Allies won (%) |
soviets vs. ostheer | 53 | 29 | 55% |
soviets vs. okw | 40 | 21 | 53% |
usf vs. ostheer | 16 | 7 | 44% |
usf vs. okw | 11 | 5 | 45% |
brits vs. ostheer | 18 | 6 | 33% |
brits vs. okw | 10 | 4 | 40% |
Sum | 147 | 72 | 49% |
You'd have to take in particular the percentages for USF and UKF matchups with a grain of salt, due to the comparably small sample size.
Then I subdivided the cups into (roughly) 2 week intervals, containing 2x2 or 3x2 cups, with 52-82 games each. The dashed, black lines in the figures below indicate when a patch/hotfix was applied.
- Between #2 and #3: Mostly a buff to the UKF AEC
- Between #8 and #9: Various changes, just to mention a few: Nerf to Calliope and Panzerwerfer, buff to 222, change of AEC, new UKF commanders, nerfs to abilities of older UKF commanders; after some hotfixes basically no veterancy for late-game infantry squads
- Between #10 and Feb monthly: Veterancy working again (?)
Factions picked:
Win percentage for each faction:
For #1/#2 there is one UKF game on record, which RoyalHants won vs. Alucard (yay, 100% win rate!). I did omit that point here...
Over the next week or so, I plan to post two more parts, one looking at maps and the other at doctrines.
Edit: Update adding the results reported by Redxwings