Twister vs Luvnest game 1 ESL Finals analysis

SPOILERS

Hey everyone. I hope I'm posting this in the right section. I also posted this to Reddit, but this forum seems more active, so I'm posting it here too. To those of you who watched the first game of the ESL finals, Twister(OKW) vs Luvnest(USF), what a comeback! I've got a bit of analysis for you guys!

To sum things up, Luvnest base-pinned Twister multiple times, and Twister didn't secure any territory until the ~20min mark. Crazy game, well played by both parties. I just wanted to offer a theory as to why Luvnest couldn't finish out the fight, and a point out what I consider to be an incredibly important aspect of assaulting entrenched positions.

Luvnest was sitting on a massive advantage with a huge fuel income. He had infantry supremacy, but Twister had an unchallenged Puma harassing the front. While in this position, Luvnest made a sensible choice: he trained a Major and went for a Sherman. Versus an opponent like Jesulin, who he faced in the semis, who goes Puma heavy, I agree with the Sherman. However, Twister went infantry heavy. The Sherman may fare well versus infantry, but Twister was also able to freely produce the T1, mineral-only Racketenwerfer to zone out the Shermans.

The lynchpin in securing the late-game dominance for Luvnest was the Sherman, and I believe this was the key mistake. For a smaller fuel cost, Luvnest could have gone T3, made a Captian to soft-counter the Puma(s), spent the excess fuel on an additional AA HT and, most importantly, gotten a 75mm Howitzer. The additional AA HT paired with the Captain squad would maintain the base pin whilst the 75mm Howitzer bled manpower from Twister's squads, preventing him from utilizing the all-important infantry call-ins. The 75mm Howitzer is the lynchpin of this strategy here. Indirect fire can never be underestimated. Vet squads take hits and, with the reinforce time/cost for OKW forces, Twister's ability to move out onto the map woudl be severely crippled. Not to mention the added effect of wiping Racketenwerfer squads (along with decreasing their relevance) allowing for a later transition to Shermans.

With the way the game played out, things happened in the opposite direction. Luvnest's Shermans were zoned shreck squads and puma, while the puma was also causing manpower attrition by catching a rifleman here and there. Twister called in infantry with impunity, leveraged the subsequent veterancy, and pushed himself out to a late-game OKW victory.

I'm not here to say that I'm 100% correct. These are the best players the game has to offer, they had been playing all day and, above all else, are extremely adaptable to a variety of strategies. I'm sure this idea crossed Luvnest's mind, and I'm sure Twister wouldn't have GGd at minute 10 if Luvnest had executed it. However, I think a lot of us thought that Luvnest had that game won 1/3 of the way through, so I just wanted to give my 2 cents on how Twister was able to secure the win.
GGWP

It's a common mistake for people in the lead to waste time going for later tech units rather than securing the game with middle tech.

Good analysis, I do feel like the Major tech units fulfill more of a support role in general. However, I think Luvnest going for an M8 Scott instead of the Sherman would have been much more effective against all the panzerfusilier. He could have then backteched to Captain.

Nice analysis Meist, I agree with you. This is what I experienced/noticed:

- I should have upgraded my Riflemen with BARs, they were simply outgunned by vet 5 Füsiliers as the match progressed which led to a brutal manpower drain
- I went for the Sherman since I had map control, M8 Scott would have been better (tbh most of my USF matches don't last that long so I reached the "I have no idea what I'm doing" point at the 30 min mark, gotta get used to USF lategame)
- Even though I had map control most of the time, Twister managed to hold on to the VP right next to his base on Langreskaya. Could have been diffrent on other maps where the VPs are more far away from the base

Anyway, very nice to see that Twister stayed in the game and managed to push me back in the end. Most players probably would have left the game after the second base pin.

Game was great, but we could see core weakness of USF in late game and I do not mean lack of heavy armor.

The menpower drain.
Sustaining infantry and pumping armor out after a certain time is literally impossible for USF and partly that was the reason as well.

OKW infantry only army is surprisingly potent and it does make sense that it outguns everything at vet5 as well.

Where can i see the replay? is it on Youtoube or twitch?

Holy crap - Luvnest replied! Haha wow, I feel silly, I sat for a long time thinking about this and typing it out... and I didn't even consider the M8 Scott. Recently, my USF play has revolved around the T3 units: AT guns and 75mms mixed with BARs, nades and doctrinal anti-infantry (usually LMGs) The M8 Scott would have been a fantastic indirect-fire choice. I'm not sure which one is more effective overall, though.

The VP near Twister's base was, indeed, also a total game-changer.

Thanks so much for the replies guys!

Link to VoD: http://www.twitch.tv/sundaynightfights/b/542964000?t=2h47m30s

Thanks!

Watched it, nice Game from both! Nice analysis too