In sports, past events have no effect on future results. Had 2010 been anywhere in the world Spain still would have won.
I did not just provide that statistic, I also mentioned several reasons for the excistence of that particular statistic. Next to that, there is a strong significant statistical relation between past and future events in sports. This is the most important factor bookmakers use to assess the chance of a certain outcome. Aside from the spread between chances and odds, if statistics of past sport events did not matter, predicted chances and thereby odds would be false and no bookmaker would still be in business.
Therefore, logic dictates that Germany is not a favourite, despite of your "feelings of confidence".