Winrates indicate horrible balance
13 Jun 2021, 19:43 PM
#21
Posts: 3423 | Subs: 1
I wouldn't be surprised if the current version of Jaeger armor is causing a lot of problems in team games. Especially at lower skill levels. I suspect the AT strafe is spanking a lot of rocket arty spammers. Or USF players who don't pay attention to their repairing tanks
13 Jun 2021, 19:50 PM
#22
Posts: 1515
Can you post the Axis win rates for comparison please?
Really? If one has a winrate of 40, then the counter-part is 60. They have to add up to 100...
Even with 3 ally factions vs 2 axis, the discrepancy is not large, maybe half a percent here and there. But if USF has 40%, then you can be sure that OST or OKW have somewhere between 55-60 percent
How much wood could a woodchuck chuck, if a woodchuck could chuck wood?
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13 Jun 2021, 19:55 PM
#23
Posts: 3166 | Subs: 6
That doesn't explain why there's a specific pattern. Or why the gap is THAT large, which it shouldn't be
I'd suspect that all the lane maps (White Ball, Red Ball, Hamburg and to some extend Arnhem) being the most popular maps have quite a significant impact on the Allies/Axis global win ratio because those maps are relatively easier for the Axis with their HMG 42s and especially superheavy TDs, and because most casuals have a hard time dealing with them. Sadly top 200 3v3 and 4v4 data is such a small sample size that it's unreliable, but at least in 2v2 with a bit bigger sample size it shows that within the top 200 the Axis/Allies WR is mostly fine at 52/53 vs 49 (with the exception of UKF, but again that could be skewed due to low sample size). I'd consider anything between 47-53 to be good enough.
Also the Allied factions seem to rely more heavily on light vehicle play, as indicated by high WRs in 1v1 for USF and SOV (but not UKF who lack an AI LV), which makes them very good at 1v1, but less so at teamgames where LV play is weaker.
UKF is not doing well, but that's why they are getting a boat load of buffs to their doctrinal arsenal in the upcoming patch. Along with a heavy nerf to Jaeger Armor.
I wish we could add the Land Mattress and the Calliope to the stock rosters of UKF and USF, as I reckon that would improve their performance (mostly on the lane maps) dramatically, but sadly that's not going to happen.
13 Jun 2021, 20:04 PM
#24
Posts: 1515
I've never played any axis faction competitively but exclusively play OKW in leisure games with whoever joins the lobby, and if you survive the early game with OKW, you're winning. You don't even have to win the lane or anything, just keep a decent enough map control and one fuel and you're good (well, if your allies haven't been dominated in their lane). The P4 will come, followed by JP4 and then KT (or if you have tiger doctrine, tiger after P4). Double raketen take care of any allied vehicle push and once the obers get vet2, they can pretty much solo any allied fully upgraded infantry.
Really not a hard faction to play past the minute 10.
Don't know how many times I've cured in competitive that I didn't go for the Calliope commander to deal with ober/volk blobs. I don't usually play the Lt., so I have the AA HT and double pak howis, and even that is not enough to stop the blob as there is always a double raketen following that blob that can just retreat if need be to a fast forward retreat point (most 3v3s the FRP/heal is the tech for OKW as far as I can tell). I do the same thing, and I know that in 90% of cases, the blob will go unchecked. Only stock for allies is the late game katy. With no AI mines, backtech for MG, pak howis that shoot little balls of goo instead of something that actually explodes and an AA HT that is RNG prone (either insta suppresses or doesn't at all, or just keeps spinning and you risk the handbrake vs double AT guns), you really can't expect the USF to have any sort of winrate vs decent enemies that know how to exploit those huge USF problems. Same with brits. They also have huge problems in their roster.
How much wood could a woodchuck chuck, if a woodchuck could chuck wood?
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13 Jun 2021, 20:08 PM
#25
Posts: 956
Really? If one has a winrate of 40, then the counter-part is 60. They have to add up to 100...
Even with 3 ally factions vs 2 axis, the discrepancy is not large, maybe half a percent here and there. But if USF has 40%, then you can be sure that OST or OKW have somewhere between 55-60 percent
They do not add up to 100 because of matters such as the team comps. Could have anything from full OKW or full OST to something in between. And then there's the Allied team comps which have the same issue. I run into full UKF enough times that it's not just a meme.
Adding 4v4 OKW win rate to USF win rate is not a helpful figure in any statistical sense.
For Italy! We have outfoxed the enemy once more!
13 Jun 2021, 20:18 PM
#27
Posts: 956
Hence the interval. The averages have to add up to 100%. They don't depend on the permutations of the factions. But anyway, Sander thinks that the "boat load of buffs" will fix brit winrates, which just goes to show how delusional a person can be.
A 5% error range is far too large to get meaningful data from. Eg: easily from 50 to 55% or 40 to 45%. In any case the WR percentages have been listed as opposed to arguing over semantics of whether the WR should add to 100 and we assume they are 100 - xyz.
For Italy! We have outfoxed the enemy once more!
13 Jun 2021, 20:23 PM
#28
Posts: 2458 | Subs: 1
Yes but this is top 200 4v4 stats
For May: UKF 36.6 Soviets 43 USF 40.8
April: UKF 45.2 Soviets 38.5 USF 43
March: UKF 43.9 Soviets 45.6 USF 48.8
You can say 45% WR is ok but having sub 40% win rate in top 200 over a whole month is just ridiculous.
13 Jun 2021, 20:24 PM
#29
Posts: 2458 | Subs: 1
Ok and now on a serious note, I think these winrates have nothing to do with imbalance really, axis are just a bit easier to play for the average casual.
Top 200 4v4
For May: UKF 36.6 Soviets 43 USF 40.8
April: UKF 45.2 Soviets 38.5 USF 43
March: UKF 43.9 Soviets 45.6 USF 48.8
You can't just say it's Allies players being stupid when the data is filtered for the top 200 only. I don't know but sub 40% WR over a whole month shows that there is something very wrong about team game balance.
13 Jun 2021, 20:26 PM
#30
Posts: 254
1) many allies randoms are not good and have no answers for some axis units. Example are heavy tanks. Usually you need a lot coordination to take out Brummbar + KT + Elefant just sitting there.
>>Thats not true! Go play Ele and see how fast its can die!
Or wehr puts 1 MG42 + gren at fuel and teammates want to surrender after 5min because they dont know how to kill the MG
>> That`s not true! Go play and watch how Allies spam Maxim and Mortar!
2) punishing tech trees. Axis always have everything available basically and dont need to back tech. They always have an important HMG no matter what.
>> That`s not true. Axis has also to tech, and can/needs to backtech.
But now if you have an allies teammate who went soviet t1 or USF captain for example, they often get rekt vs OKW blob or lmg42 blob. Because they have no MG.
>> Actually, blobbing is the best you can do to loose! Thre are so many counter against a blobb! On both sides!
13 Jun 2021, 20:29 PM
#31
Posts: 3166 | Subs: 6
You can say 45% WR is ok but having sub 40% win rate in top 200 over a whole month is just ridiculous.
You're looking at a sample size of barely 350 games. That is not even close to being reliable. The website itself even states that. The same month top 200 for 3v3, only 200 games, has Allies at a 58/50/60% win ratio.
13 Jun 2021, 20:32 PM
#32
Posts: 2458 | Subs: 1
You're looking at a sample size of barely 350 games. That is not even close to being reliable. Those stats are very likely very skewed. The same month top 200 for 3v3 (only 200 games) has Allies at 58/50/60% win ratio.
Ahh...so I use all all games then people complain Allies players are simply noobs and don't know how to play and if I choose Top 200 the sample size is too small.
I guess that proves the game is totally balanced then. How could I ever doubt the balance team?
13 Jun 2021, 20:41 PM
#33
Posts: 2145 | Subs: 2
But... they... do have these.
They do? Since wheeeen?
Rephrased:
At the start:
- No MG
- No smoke
- Useless grenades
- No fausts
Late game:
- No single player arty counter (recon and drop)
Many 4v4 maps are GG for OKW. They have no chance.
13 Jun 2021, 20:54 PM
#34
Posts: 254
They do? Since wheeeen?
Rephrased:
At the start:
- No MG
- No smoke
- Useless grenades
- No fausts
Late game:
- No single player arty counter (recon and drop)
Many 4v4 maps are GG for OKW. They have no chance.
+1
13 Jun 2021, 20:54 PM
#35
Posts: 12 | Subs: 1
How is it acceptable to have these WR% in 2v2 3v3 4v4 over several months?
Considering how matchmaking works these WR% are pretty incredible. Despite the matchmaker trying to even out every game by matching players of similar elo Allies somehow manage to get 40-45% WR in 2v2 3v3 4v4 over hundreds of thousands of games. There were almost 42000 4v4s played in the month of May alone.
the main problem with ukf is the mg does not suppress you can go with 2 squads in front of it and kill it
13 Jun 2021, 20:55 PM
#36
Posts: 213
Ahh...so I use all all games then people complain Allies players are simply noobs and don't know how to play and if I choose Top 200 the sample size is too small.
I guess that proves the game is totally balanced then. How could I ever doubt the balance team?
I dont think any sane person thinks that Allies have an advantage in 3vs3/4vs4. But whats the solution? Sander already said that faction reworks (like stock calliope) are out of the window. And most of allied stock units are decently balanced. Commanders get adjusted in the upcoming patch and (hopefully) bring down axis down to a reasonable lvl.
So what realistic thing is there to do on top of that?
13 Jun 2021, 20:56 PM
#37
Posts: 8154 | Subs: 2
Ahh...so I use all all games then people complain Allies players are simply noobs and don't know how to play and if I choose Top 200 the sample size is too small.
I guess that proves the game is totally balanced then. How could I ever doubt the balance team?
Top200 for 3v3 and 4v4 is useless cause it just shows how not even 1% of the games are balanced match making wise.
All stats for 3v3/4v4 works in the context that it's the only useful sample we have. And the counterargument they gave you of "noob" allies doesn't work because there are both noobs on Allies and Axis and in the past we already have stats that made Allies have better WR.
My controls weren't working
And if they were, you were playing dishonorably,
And if you weren't, you were playing without skill,
And if you were, it's not fun to play that way,
And if it is, you only care about winning.
Bible of Scrublord, Psalt 3:16.
And if they were, you were playing dishonorably,
And if you weren't, you were playing without skill,
And if you were, it's not fun to play that way,
And if it is, you only care about winning.
Bible of Scrublord, Psalt 3:16.
13 Jun 2021, 20:56 PM
#38
Posts: 254
I dont think any sane person thinks that Allies have an advantage in 3vs3/4vs4. But whats the solution? Sander already said that faction reworks (like stock calliope) are out of the window. And most of allied stock units are decently balanced. Commanders get adjusted in the upcoming patch and (hopefully) bring down axis down to a reasonable lvl.
So what realistic thing is there to do on top of that?
Actually, Allies, resp. soviets are slightly op in tg.
13 Jun 2021, 20:58 PM
#39
Posts: 1515
They do? Since wheeeen?
Rephrased:
At the start:
- No MG
- No smoke
- Useless grenades
- No fausts
Late game:
- No single player arty counter (recon and drop)
Many 4v4 maps are GG for OKW. They have no chance.
USF at start: Rifles only.
No Mg
Smoke is behind tech
Granades are behind tech
No snares for early kubel spams which can put a lot of bleed in teamgames and displace rifles from cover easily.
Good enough?
How much wood could a woodchuck chuck, if a woodchuck could chuck wood?
https://coh2stats.com/players/76561198031032150
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