World Championship Finals Replay Analysis

(this is totally an excuse not to use my new custom keyboard)



In this lovely thread I'm going to analyze the finals of 2019 world championship games.

Disclaimer: Since I have the benefit of pausing the game and taking my sweet time to look at everything, I won't criticize things that seem like small micro mistakes. Fatigue, having fog of war, and the fact that you aren't a sentient AI are just a few reasons why.

Disclaimer 2: Analysis by me will often have a narrative. This is, of course, my opinion. You can probably find other reasons why games are won or lost.

Disclaimer 3: Sometimes I'll get some stats wrong don't haze me bro.

Game 1: Soviet - Guard Motor Coordination vs. OKW - Grand Offensive

AE and Stomrless's VOD Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D00UZYEF48M&list=PL5Gq-kPFBcWH3j0gkgPdtGw3ISjv1uUpn

TL;DR - Despite a strong VP bleed from Noggano in the beginning giving him a solid lead, Luvnest held onto his fuel and simultaneously harassed Noggano's fuel + repelled his cutoff attempts. Luvnest got a solid transition to mid game, forcing Noggano to expend more fuel that delayed medium/heavy tanks from coming out earlier. Noggano had better unit preservation heading towards late game, but it was mitigated by support weapons losses that Luvnest captured. Failure to kill the SU-85 closed out Noggano's late game.

Here's a color code breakdown:
Green - Good. Orange - Not so good. Got it?

Now here's a more detailed breakdown:



Noggano does really well in the early game in pressuring VPs and the center. He has a very supported mid line, where practically all of his army is within decent range to come and support the push towards Luvnest cutoff. The picture doesn't quite capture the injured volk right next to the cutoff.

Now why does this attempt get pushed off? Theoretically 2 volks at the cutoff can repel off the CE and conscript there, and the volks by the right VP could tie up the CE and conscript.

1. A good flamer pop from the right CE dissuades any reinforcement from the right.
2. Because the left fuel was harassed, the sturmpio chose to go for the cutoff rather than support the center. Luvnest effectively ties off a sturmpio flank just by capping.



So Noggano lags a bit behind in fuel as a result. Not a total loss for him yet, but it gets kind of critical when he's unable to take the cutoff or cap the right fuel.



Luvnest is able to pump out a T70 at the same time when Noggano gets out his Luchs. Noggano gets kind of caught out; he harasses the right fuel too late and now will be forced to bleed manpower until he gets a raketen or puma.



Noggano gets most of his force pushed off. Combined with a guards squad, Luvnest practically has control of the right. As long as has the T70 near the guards, Noggano can't take the right head on without sacrificing a lot of manpower. In the interim, Luvnest is free to harass the left fuel, making the Puma feel a lot more expensive than it really is.



The right house by the VP contains the guards. Here you can going heads-on on the right doesn't get Noggano much. In my opinion, this is where Noggano could have re-shifted his priorities to Luvnest's cutoff. This would have allowed his MG34 an opportunity to force some troops back, and get Luvnest to have the right more free for Noggano to harass.



Here was the first big engagement that could have turned poorly for either player. Here's how both players could have came away dominantly after this fight:

Noggano:
1. Have the center(MG34, Puma, Sturmpio, Luchs) hold as long as possible.
2. Get the 3 volks on the top left flank and cause as much mp bleed as possible.
3. (Optional) Have the luchs go on the right to relieve some pressure on the middle.
I personally would have pegged him getting the T70 as unlikely; guards in the center would stop the puma from diving in.

Luvnest:
1. Kill any light vehicle honestly. He has a Zis which has the DPS to kill the puma or luchs.
2. Do as much manpower bleed as possible with the guards + T70. His lead in fuel allows him to be more passive.



The way the engagement goes, the puma gets tagged twice and is forced to back off, the center line collapses and Noggano's flank arrives too late. Here he wisely backs his volks off, further committing would have put a heavy man power drain.

In the end I would say Noggano missed an opportunity, but he recomposed himself fairly graciously. Luvnest only wins by being able to capture the central VP.



Here Luvnest actually loses 2 conscripts in short time. This is great for Noggano, who holds a dominant infantry force. But he still faces the 3 units that continue to zone him out of the middle (Zis, T70, and guards). I think given that he has enough time, he could have used his infantry advantage to force either the zis or guards out, giving his puma and luchs much more mobility.

However, here's where the lack of fuel control and getting fuel harassed sets him back, the T34-85 is already building and Noggano doesn't have enough AT to effectively repel it; just the puma to pepper the 85 here and there. But this puts the puma at risk to get double tapped by the 85 + zis or buttoned by the guards and followed up by the 85.



Remember, Luvnest technically is still behind in manpower by losing 2 squads. Noggano still holds the infantry advantage, though its being somewhat negated by the roving 85. His raketen placement was spot on for the T70, but not for the 85. The hedge allows the 85 to screen Luvnest's troops without taking additional damage. Luvnest effectively zones out Noggano from recovering his MG34.

Losing an MG34 is a kick in the teeth; getting it stolen is effectively losing 2 squads. Luvnest gains a free unit and now can lock down parts of the map, something which doesn't have. This diversifies his army, which further punishes Noggano since now he has to deal with suppression.




This next engagement is Noggano's to lose. There isn't enough AI for Luvnest to push back any advancing troops. Noggano's aim should be trying to do as much mp damage as possible.

However, he got kind of sidetracked from the puma and raketen being able to damage the 85. The problem is, once the 85 got outside of the raketen's range, it might have taken 2 penetrating shots from the puma to finish it off. Someone can provide the raw numbers, but I don't think this would have been likely. Especially not sitting in front of the Zis. The luchs gets destroyed because of both aggression and Noggano's micro being distracted with the deceptively low 85.

In an ideal and calm world, Noggano could have smoked off the luchs retreat with the puma after realizing the 85 wasn't going to die. He could have also counted that damn volks to actually kill enough members off of the Zis (a flame nade would've helped, but I can see the micro distraction, so I don't blame him)



Here the Zis gets cleared and destroyed. Noggano made the right decision in doing so, I would have been nervous with all the detected mines (85 scatter could have triggered them, as raketen was not in range to support) This is great for Noggano until...





An overextended raketen that takes only one shot before getting decrewed. Once decrewed, Noggano has effectively no way to really dissuade the 85 from bullying out the volks. Yes the puma can be there, but given the higher armor value and the guards support in the middle, the 85 wouldn't be pushed off.

Noggano attempts to salvage the situation but is just bleeding mp. Luvnest captures the raketen and effectively the Zis is negated and Noggano is put without any actual AT to finish off vehicles.



Luvnest harasses the left fuel (and note the right fuel is again uncontested and probably will never be due to the MG34 right about the right VP). Noggano does the right move and utilize his infantry advantage (still hasn't lost any volks!) while screening the 85 away with the puma. This might equalize the manpower trades, but Luvnest still has a far more diverse army composition.



SU-85 comes out at the same time that the Tiger does. But Luvnest still has almost enough for an 85 after this, and still holds the raketen. This is more than enough against a Tiger and Puma.





It's my opinion that Noggano could have changed the tide quite heavily in his favor had he focused on the SU-85. Instead he picks up the vetted T34-85 which is quite good. The problem is that the biggest threat to his center piece (the Tiger) is the SU-85. He had a window to actually get the SU-85 by snaring with his solid volks screen in the middle and having the puma flank.

Hindsight is 20/20, as maybe if he did go for the SU-85 it wouldn't have resulted in a kill. But if something is threatening your center piece, you take it out ASAP. This would have allowed the vetted puma (which gets the damage and sight bonus allowing it to become more of a hard counter to the T34-85s) to roam around much more freely. (+ the fact that the guards died).

Arguably Luvnest had enough to create either the T34-85 or SU-85 after a loss of either one, but wiping vet on tank destroyers is much more important imo.



Luvnest making the smart move trying to speed up his SU-85 vet. That sweet sweet vet.





Again, another instance of focusing on the pawns (T34-85) instead of the king (SU-85). It is true that the T34-85 had a better chance of dying. But if the puma aimed shot the T34-85 and dived straight for the SU-85, being able to wipe the only reliable counter to the Tiger would have been big.

Yes a dive is risky, Noggano probably feared mines or something. But the amount of mark target Luvnest has been spamming should have lessened his fear a little bit. Noggano did a little better job harassing the munis in the early game and Luvnest was never able to touch the left munis.

To Noggano's defense, he got the short end of the stick on both the T34-85 (puma bounce + tiger bounce or miss?) and then a Tiger and puma miss with on the SU-85. I can't tell if this would have killed the SU-85. It could have most likely given a crit, but only the main gun crit would have saved the Tiger from death.

Many people will argue he should have waited for the P4 to come join in. This is a valid path, but honestly, with most troops retreated off the field and two fresh okw vehicles, it's not a bad risk to take in engaging two slight wounded Sov vehicles. Just poor target prioritization cost him his Tiger.

Once the Tiger, Noggano could, at best, drain a few more VPs. Losing volks squad means Noggano would be relying on his OKW vehicles more. Having a Vet 3 SU-85 effectively crushes any vehicle play.

Psst guess what was holding the right for most of the mid-late game (allowing Luvnest to at least hold one VP). That's right, the MG34!

I'll do G2 when I have the chance. Feel free to discuss or give some feedback to the formatting.

Hey, is this the SexWings hazing thread?

Hey, is this the SexWings hazing thread?

If I'm not constantly being touched inappropriately then I've failed to live up to my reputation.

Hot damn, this is pretty good analysis. Would like to see this made into a guide after it gets polished by the editors.

Hot damn, this is pretty good analysis. Would like to see this made into a guide after it gets polished by the editors.

Thanks for the feedback! Rereading some of my stuff I can see some grammar mistakes...I'll let someone smarter handle all that.

Game 2: Soviet - Defensive Doctrine vs. OKW - Grand Offensive Doctrine

AE and Stormless's VOD Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xQLQHswmFVQ&list=PL5Gq-kPFBcWH3j0gkgPdtGw3ISjv1uUpn&index=28

Pre TL;DR analysis - Personally this game felt much more narrow in terms of what was happening on the field. That being said this was just as interesting as a game, definitely things I thought could have valid merit despite it ultimately going wrong.

TL;DR - Due to Luvnest forfeiting some early game presence to catch out Noggano's M3 (which I assume is actually his intention), this cost him in terms of fuel and munitions. Noggano had the lead an interestingly invested more in manpower units rather than fuel units. This allowed stronger VP control and due to Luvnest's available units, allowed Noggano to snowball resources. When the Tiger would inevitably come, Noggano was able to zone out the Tiger via the defensive artillery ability and was able to leverage his resource inequality to catch up to Luvnest. The Tiger was passive and any supporting tanks failed to support it effectively. The Tiger had too many targets to shoot; it wasn't able to do the work it needed by tanking shots and allowing supporting units to mop up Noggano's army.


SOV opens up with a T1 opening. What you need to know is that by doing a sole T1 opening, the first penal squad will often be outclassed by a normal OKW opening. Luvnest kind of skirts by the first engagement with the penal, which I believe he could have done a little bit better by avoiding the negative cover south of the middle VP. Yes the M3 is there, but it isn't too large of a concern since the flamer engineers aren't out. If you can force the penal off early, the T1 opening becomes weak initially without any infantry supporting the M3.


Noggano wisely moves the M3 to support the penal. By allowing the M3 to take shots, it effectively allows the penal to stay longer on the field. Combine that with 2 engineers allowing for quick repairs mean less manpower loss. Now I found it interesting that Luvnest went for a thin T0 and plan to go to T1. I don't think most people expect early panzerfausts especially since he has panzerfusiliers. I like this double bluff, but it needs to be timed perfectly.


When I saw this I initially thought Luvnest has something great going on, by abusing this hedge and sight line, you can pull out a quick faust and allow another faust or at nade to follow up. He should be focusing on the penal squad though, unless I am mistaken, 2 fausts or 1 faust and at nade can finish off a full M3.


Luvnest is prepping in case his faust plan doesn't work with a mine. Now I don't fault him for putting a mine there, but if he was planning to do the next engagement intentionally, he might have been served better by placing it on the retreat path of his units...


Critically Luvnest catches out a low combat engineer squad, good on him for comprising the retreat path. He does gain an initial lead.


Noggano forces the hedge volks by running straight into it. Luvnest could have played this slightly better by dancing back and forth between the hedge. This would allow the volks to be more split up, reducing the effectiveness of the flamer M3. That being said, the retreat was a safe option, so not a big deal. Due to what happens next, having that volks last there longer would have helped immensely.


If he had held just a little bit longer, he could have gotten a faust off, and with the rest of the army in the center, could have been finished off. The med truck finishes just as the volks retreat, so lost opportunity there.


Here Noggano correctly focuses on the weakest unit in order to force a retreat. What Luvnest could have done is screen his troops better, maybe backpedal the panzerfusilier to the hedge below just as an emergency snare, move the other troops to maybe force Noggano to not target the panzerfusiliers.


Now here is what I don't get if Luvnest intentionally does this or is a slip up. Would it have been worth it to reveal you do have fausts by not retreating that volks squad to save the panzerfusilier? Sure it meant that Noggano would have M3 alive and would be wary, but the panzerfusilier would more likely have lived. Maybe he intentionally retreated to bait the M3 into the mine that Luvnest had laid just shortly before.


The mine gets hit by the penal instead, so that safety net fails. Luvnest goes for the surprise double faust which catches Noggano off guard. But here's the thing, the flamer engineer inside is as dangerous as the M3, especially when it has full health and is already in flamer range. With Luvnest's troops already clustered right next to the cutoff, it's going to sting badly.




The M3 dies but Luvnest's army gets routed. His cutoff is taken, which isn't too horrendously bad because he gets out his first light vehicle. Noggano, seeing a double faust expenditure, a mine, and getting the cutoff instantly goes for mines. He knows that Luvnest pretty much has no munis for sweepers, which pretty much guarantees mp bleed. Interesting that Noggano rebuilds his engineer. This kind of sets him back manpower-fuel ratio wise; his fuel growth will outplace his manpower growth this potentially slowing down his T70.


So I found it interesting that Noggano, upon seeing the flak halftrack, goes for defensive and immediately calls out a M42 AT gun. He isn't terribly far off from a T70, and he could definitely stall the flak halftrack from making any gains by using his penals in buildings or heavy cover wherever available. This suggests to me Noggano is very intent on maintaining as much pressure as possible, sacrificing the mid to late game. The VP bleed will continue on, as Noggano absolutely loves doing.


Noggano manages to catch out and damage the raketen. This comes at a big blow for Luvnest; much like how (intentionally?) hidden the panzerfaust from the M3, he loses out the element of surprise.


Noggano dives heavier into more manpower investments, while Luvnest goes for an Leig as a response to the Dshk. This indicated to me that there will be a much longer mid game, with heavier vehicles coming much later. I always question the Leig as it needs a surprising amount of micro to use effectively. A combination of smoke, manual attack, and ground attack would really help Luvnest deal with the growing support weapon armada.


So here's a small tidbit I find odd no one using. Luvnest does a great job using smoke to help capture the central VP. But if you know where the Dshk is, why not smoke, halt the leig after the first smoke shell drops, then attack ground the Dshk? This would allow more health damage to the Dshk, allowing for it to retreat more often and transition to better control of the mid. Noggano adds more mp investments, which allows so much field control given that Luvnest doesn't flank correctly.


Pro Tip: Apparently if you are the north player and you control the house right next to the VP with a MG, the whole right side is yours. If you noticed, there isn't much territory change between the two other than the initial engagement. Both sides keep their fuels and munitions quite handily, only strategic points get exchanged. Both players kind of tunnel visioned into each other.


Luvnest loses his MG34, but an ober squad correctly screens the penal from capturing it. One thing I noticed is how passive the flak halftrack is, I definitely feel like, given you have the micro, you can attack ground through the hedge and put more pressure on the Sov troops in the middle. Would definitely feel like this would allow Luvnest to maneuver his troops around the map more.




Noggano does a beautiful T70 & M42 attack ground push against the flak halftrack. Luvnest definitely stuck around there too long with no upside. It is unlikely he would have gotten the low T70 without the raketen, which was caught out in the middle. Noggano saw this and stuck his T70 out longer, maybe to entice the flak halftrack to stay longer. But at the same time, Luvnest should have known not much would be accomplished.


Luvnest does a great double flame nade to pretty much bleed the combat engineers heavily. Despite the tactical coolness, I wonder if it was worth it in the macro sense. He's tailing in munitions quite heavily. This reduces the future mines he can lay, smoke pots to allow for flanks, flares, etc.


Noggano gets a late T34 out due to the mp to fuel ratio inequality. Since Luvnest goes for the Tiger, it kind of works in Noggano's favor anyways. Regardless, due to the amount of fuel Noggano has, he would have been just as prepared to handle a P4. Here Noggano dances around the hedge quite nicely to avoid the raketen and maximize support weapon damage.


During the course of watching this battle, I noticed that the scope of engagements was extremely narrow. I understood why the right was narrow (due to the Dshk in the right house), but not the left. If anything Luvnest has swept the area for mines quite a few times yet had no inclination of pushing. This is lost opportunity, as Dshks really excel by having the fields of engagement be as small as possible.




Luvnest's Tiger finally comes out. Immediately he has the advantage and Noggano doesn't have a hard counter to measure up. But guess what, that muni float Noggano allows an easy zoning out of the Tiger, stalling it so that the SU85 can come out.

Whether intentional or not, Noggano has some really great PTRS control. He could have easily bought some when the flak halftrack came out, yet he didn't. This allowed the penals to retain their anti infantry effectiveness to the max and keep a healthy muni reserve. 200 munis might seem expensive to stall a Tiger, but it's essentially a muni to mp transfer. By limiting the Tiger, Noggano is essentially invalidating the shock value of the Tiger.


Langres late game turns into a vision game. He who has more vision essentially has a huge advantage. Both players are using vision quite effectively, Noggano has the vet3 T70 and Luvnest has panzerfusiliers flares. However, one is free and the other drains munis. Not to mention that the Sov army can use the vision more effectively (due to the SU85, allowing the T34 to quick maneuver away from the Tiger to harass when necessary). The OKW army needs to be more proactive with vision intel; it isn't enough to smoke just to cap the mid VP for a few seconds.


Luvnest temporarily deals with the right VP house for a bit, only to get pushed off by the T34. Luvnest could send the Tiger once to the right and knock out the house, just to reduce the effectiveness of the Dshk and allow less vision on the right. I feel like he's beginning to feel the pressure of the VPs and he's tunnel visioning in the middle quite hard.



Here's what all players should keep in mind with heavy tanks. It is only one tank. It is a dominating presence, but it needs support. It can deftly handle targets that can counter it, but once it gets ganged up without a bail card, it is essentially a resource sink. All Luvnest had here was a raketen, which Noggano quickly catches out. Being out ranged by the SU85, Luvnest really has no choice but to pull back his Tiger.


Free vet for the SU85. Not to mention that Noggano is winning the repair game. His combat engineers are having a much better time than the overworked sturmpios, who have to repair and sweep the many mines Noggano has been spamming. Luvnest could have opted for a mech repair hq to alleviate the strumpio overload.


Here Luvnest technically has the armor advantage. As long as he focuses down that SU85 with the jagdpanzer he can absolutely turn the tide. That's the only thing that Noggano really has that can immediately counter the Tiger. Also want to note that due to the rapid muni gain from Noggano, he can lay mines like no tomorrow.


Luvnest suddenly grows shy all of sudden, he knows there aren't any mines in front of him, there are no snares, and he has a raketen in the back in case of any flanks. But he doesn't chase the SU85 too heavily. While Noggano has the VP lead and army value lead, he technically can't stand toe to toe armor wise without using the defensive arty ability.




I just kind of laugh how thorough Noggano is with the right side. Aint nothing busting through there (well maybe a Tiger just hitting the house and putting a minesweeper there :b)


Luvnest stalls out too long in the middle and allows Noggano to get enough munis to call in the defensive arty ability. Combine this with a flank T34 that goes unimpeded because:

A. There are no mines laid by Luvnest (severe muni usage throughout the game!)
B. Lack of awareness from Luvnest to realize Noggano has no minesweepers throughout the entire game. A mine here or there at the right place would have done wonders.
C. Raketen doesn't get brought up quick enough to support.

The JP4 dies without much of a fight. The T34 is lost, but due to the resource glut Noggano has, it isn't much of a loss. At this point, I consider the game to be over, though Luvnest does get enough to get another JP4 out. But the VP bleed has been absolutely insane and pressures Luvnest to be desperate and make mistakes. Noggano can sit pretty and allow Luvnest to bleed slowly.


Psst, don't use your tank to go through ober smoke, it disables the gun! I know the pressure is getting bad for Luvnest, just goes to show how VPs are as much of a psychological game as an actual indicator of win or loss.

That's it for G2. G3 will probably be done after the holidays. If you got any counterpoints feel free to post 'em!

thank you very much for this highly informative and in-depth analysis RedxWings! there are a lot of good points i missed while watching the original cast and i think (or, better, hope) i've learned something to step up my game, too.
posts like this really are a very welcome breath of fresh air in the .org forums; i wish the focus would shift back to discussing builds and strategies instead of the same people hurling mud at each other over and over in the endless 'this up - that op' balance threads. anyways, looking forward for g3-g5 and happy holidays!

thank you very much for this highly informative and in-depth analysis RedxWings! there are a lot of good points i missed while watching the original cast and i think (or, better, hope) i've learned something to step up my game, too.
posts like this really are a very welcome breath of fresh air in the .org forums; i wish the focus would shift back to discussing builds and strategies instead of the same people hurling mud at each other over and over in the endless 'this up - that op' balance threads. anyways, looking forward for g3-g5 and happy holidays!

Thank you for the kind words! I'd like to output useful content from time to time.

I'm back from the holidays! I forget how long this god damn thing takes me to write.

Game 3: USF - Mechanized Company vs. OKW - Luftwaffe Forces Doctrine

AE and Stormless's VOD Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBm9YctpwvI&list=PL5Gq-kPFBcWH3j0gkgPdtGw3ISjv1uUpn&index=29

TL;DR: Noggano's unconventional RE strat didn't catch Luvnest off guard, but it was able to maintain map control for early to mid game and mitigated Noggano's early unit losses. Luvnest incorrectly read a straight to major tech without actually seeing the major, costing him the only unit that could deal with Noggano's actual army: 50 cals. Being unable to break the 50 cal hold, Luvnest would only deepen in resource disparity and eventually lose out to Noggano based on attrition.



Now notice this when Noggano creates his REs. Instead of gunning for a fuel cap, he goes for a rather conservative muni cap. It is subtle, but he is really banking on making an upgunned wc51 as quick as possible. This is to offset the weak firepower of his start, and could also be intended force Luvnest to make a raketen (thus having fewer volks on the field).



Here is what Luvnest could do to quickly recognize an RE start. He's seen the first RE on the LHS, and will shortly see the second on the RHS. Now 2 REs isn't too strange, but it warrants a closer inspection. Luvnest did push his sturmpio on the left to the 3rd RE, though facing 2 REs as his first engagement should prompt him to be much more aggressive.



What you don't want to do is fight REs in green cover or (even worse) in buildings. Of the very few things that RE could do, they excel at stalling. And if you get close enough, you'll just lose models and hp when it really isn't worth it. Play around it, go for cutoffs, force other ways to REs to leave their nest and engage in unfavorable conditions.



Noggano bum rushes the WC51 upgrade. It will easily counter whatever the OKW army could possible have at the 2:30 mark.



If you have to fight against nested REs, focus your entire force. I mean unless you are close, REs do practically nothing at long range. Luvnest could have forced off the REs on the right with volk focus fire and the sturmpio to dissuade building hopping, then focus his attention on the left REs. This split approach doesn't really do him any favors.



Luvnest does some really nice things here. This kubel bait almost works but Noggano had some great sixth sense going on (I didn't check, but the wc51 might have seen it?). Luvnest also picks up a RE (but mp wise Noggano loses nothing, as an RE was his starting unit, and 200mp to replace isn't bad.)



Noggano could have played this maybe a little bit better, he lets himself get cutoff. I'm going to guess this was because he was focusing elsewhere, but the very least he could do is nudge the LT into circle. A better move would be to get the RE squad into the circle and have the LT support behind them. The REs are your meatshield, use them as such.



Luvnest picks up the WC51 quite easily, but notice the map control. The entire right and more importantly the left fuel is in Noggano's hands. It's not connected to Noggano, but Luvnest can either guess a comparatively quick stuart or a major tech skip.



Now as much as I love spamming REs, they aren't an actual fighting force. They need a complement. You have to do at least one of the following:
1. Use elite infantry.
2. Give them weapon upgrades.
3. Use 50 cals.

Noggano knows Luvnest has a lower amount of infantry due to the raketen, meaning less opportunities for flanks. 50 cals would be a great choice to force lone volks off.



Luvnest does a good decoy flank maneuver with the kubel acting as a bait to the 50 cal. Noggano has a sloppy LT late retreat, which Luvnest deservedly picks up.



Again Luvnest does a good decoy flank with the raketen acting as the bait. Here's the issue though, if you have to keep doing this if you can't wipe and capture the 50 cal. Just due to the fact there isn't a light vehicle Luvnest can afford the kind of brute force the 50 cals out.

Setting up these decoy flanks require micro and planning, as opposed to relatively micro free action of setting up the 50 cal in the right direction. So if you want to dig yourself out from this micro disparity, either get a light vehicle ASAP or wipe the support weapons out.



Here is where I think the biggest blunder came from Luvnest: he assumed that Noggano was teching to major without seeing the major. (most players don't hide their free tech unit, but think of it logically, Noggano is bound to have the stuart tech regardless if he made his major or not). In fact, Noggano was teching to his major, probably because there was no reason from him not to.



But here's the thing, you can cancel the major tech with one button. You can't cancel an already made luchs. Once Noggano spots the luchs, he instantly cancels the major for a stuart instantly. The clock is ticking for Luvnest, probably sooner than Luvnest realizes.



By all accounts, if Noggano already made the Major, Luvnest's dive to the 50 cal was what he needed to do. You can see him slowly gain more map control back, taking both fuels. This dive that happens seem well suppported, with a raketen in tow. Noggano is set for a good counter offensive though, calling up a cav rifle and a possible RE retreat punish.



Luvnest had a few opportunities to recover from a stuart gone wild. The faust was correctly applied and a raketen got a shot off. However, here's what he failed to do afterwards:
1. The kubel didn't take any opportunity to block the stuart's pathing, allowing an easy raketen A-move to finish the stuart off.
2. Failing to block, the raketen was set to an A-move order, instead of predicting where the stuart would go. A damaged engine Stuart that close is still enough to strafe the raketen's arc of fire.
3. Refusal to retreat instantly when the opportunity to finish off the stuart was lost.





I know the feeling of desperation Luvnest. But this is desperation with a 0% chance of going your way!



A nice attempt at recover by trying to wipe out the crew from Luvnest. But Noggano's paying attention so tough luck. Luvnest knows he still needs to deal with the 50 cals, and remakes the Luchs. At this point, this is the best he can realistically do as his map control bleeds away.



Here Luvnest does actually try to predict where the stuart is going to go. Unfortunately, A-move is actually better in this case. Why? There's no reason for the stuart to either chase or strafe the raketen (there's a faust and raketen set up for the chase, and most players don't like to strafe the raketen when an undamaged engine vehicle might get fausted)



Noggano knows Luvnest's fuel investment, so he's free to make whatever he wants. Noggano's losses so far were the WC51, a RE, and LT. This is minuscule compared to Luvnest's loss of a falls and luchs. With such a lead, Noggano can already twist the knife deeper by exploiting Luvnest' inability to deal with the 50 cal with another 50 cal. A weapons rack upgrade allows REs to start defending the flanks of the 50 cals better. And a major tech because why not.



Now it's important as the North player to control the north house. Why? Unlike the southern house, the northern house allows easy cutoff harassment at practically any time. The RHS 50 cal holds down a possible flank attempt and effectively puts Luvnest in a corner.



Kind of funny that this happens, Luvnest totally could have gotten the stuart had he known Noggano just poured all of his munis into his REs. Luvnest would never in a million years know that Noggano couldn't throw an AT satchel, and there is no reason he would stick around to do figure that out. Bad timing for Luvnest again.



I don't really understand the cutoff attempt when Noggano clearly will and always will have a resource lead unless you tech out his vehicles. A better use would be trying to set up a decoy flank on the northern mg house.



A good attack ground through a hedge. Luvnest mechanically does this right. I am always a proponent of abusing attack ground whenever you can. If you know an AT gun can shoot through an object, take advantage of it! There's a big difference in getting an early shot will do in helping destroy a vehicle or at least dissuade an intrusion.



I can sense the desperation really kicking in, so him fausting a full HP sherman with the raketen not even set up in the right direction fits the theme.



Luvnest tries to protect his cutoff with a schewer to the left of the cutoff, but at this point, it's too little too late.



With a bulldozer sherman free to harass retreating units, it's lights out for Luvnest.

Next game I recall being extremely long and I have a mildly busier month so...G4 TBD. I might cut down on the really detailed analysis and go for more overarching themes just to reduce the work. Hope you enjoyed G3 analysis!

So, G3 TL;DR: "the Luchs screwed Luvnest".

Great analysis as always. The idea of using the Kubel to block the Stuart's pathing to save the Luchs/kill the Stuart is actually wildly smart (and something I'd like to try out).

Do you have any comments on Luvnest's commander choice? I for one think that Grand Offensive with the Panzerfusiliers would have been decent Jeep deterrent, plus Luvnest wouldn't have sacrificed the infantry power (as Fusiliers beat REs comfortable even without G43s).

thanks for teh replay anlysis very usefull

So, G3 TL;DR: "the Luchs screwed Luvnest".

Great analysis as always. The idea of using the Kubel to block the Stuart's pathing to save the Luchs/kill the Stuart is actually wildly smart (and something I'd like to try out).

Do you have any comments on Luvnest's commander choice? I for one think that Grand Offensive with the Panzerfusiliers would have been decent Jeep deterrent, plus Luvnest wouldn't have sacrificed the infantry power (as Fusiliers beat REs comfortable even without G43s).

The Luchs was the right unit to make and the dive was something that needed to happen, it's just the dive was a little too reckless and the resulting unit losses was way too severe.

Frankly I feel like Luvnest handled the WC51 quite well, a simple raketen without a mine or snare was able to kill it. It's just Luvnest didn't react quickly in the early game when realizing it was an RE spam start and the REs and 50 cals did some great stalling into the mid game.

thanks for teh replay anlysis very usefull

i luv u 2 mistah