Good Book For Balance Designers

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Superforecasting : The Art And Science Of Prediction

People have been trying to make the sick well for as
long as people have been getting sick. But “wretched”? That is less obvious, even for
readers familiar with the history of medicine, because “most histories of medicine are
strikingly odd,” as the British physician and author Druin Burch noted. “They provide a
clear account of what people believed they were doing, but almost none at all of whether
they were right.” 4 Did the ostrich egg poultices applied by ancient Egyptian physicians
actually heal head fractures? In ancient Mesopotamia, did the treatments of the Keeper of
the Royal Rectum actually keep royal rectums healthy? What about bloodletting?
Everyone from the ancient Greeks to George Washington’s doctors swore that it was
wonderfully restorative, but did it work? The standard histories are usually mute on these
scores, but when we use modern science to judge the efficacy of historical treatments, it
becomes depressingly clear that most of the interventions were useless or worse. Until
quite recently in historical terms, it was not unusual for a sick person to be better off if
there was no physician available because letting an illness take its natural course was less
dangerous than what a physician would inflict. And treatments seldom got better, no
matter how much time passed.

....

You probably realized a couple of things. First, conscious thought is demanding.
Thinking the problem through requires sustained focus and takes an eternity relative to
the snap judgment you got with a quick look. Second, “ten cents” is wrong. It feels right.
But it’s wrong. In fact, it’s obviously wrong—if you give it a sober second thought.
The bat-and-ball question is one item in an ingenious psychological measure, the
Cognitive Reflection Test, which has shown that most people—including very smart
people—aren’t very reflective. They read the question, think “ten cents,” and scribble
down “ten cents” as their final answer without thinking carefully. So they never discover
the mistake, let alone come up with the correct answer (five cents). That is normal
human behavior. We tend to go with strong hunches. System 1 follows a primitive
psycho-logic: if it feels true, it is.

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Today, 02:53 AM

Lady Xenarra: Does anyone else think that USF needs buffs? It feels like they’re on life support sometimes
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Willy Pete: @Rosbone Ahh I missed that memo. I still think its a bad decision though. Adds frustration for players and isnt gonna make them that much money
Last Thursday, 15:46 PM

Rosbone: It is also good they left it free until after the free to play weekend. Points for that.
Last Thursday, 09:34 AM

Rosbone: But I agree, the cost to get a full decent Coh game pushing $115 US is not the best idea. Especially when it needs so much more work for casuals.
Last Thursday, 09:32 AM

Rosbone: To be fair, it was a thank you to early fans right? They said it was not free for long and it would become a pay DLC at some point.
Last Thursday, 09:30 AM

Willy Pete: Re-releasing free DLC so they can charge new players money for it. Brilliant marketing strategy

Last Thursday, 04:31 AM

Soheil: Coh2 still broken server ?
25 Mar 2025, 18:27 PM

Rosbone: Congrats to Relic. Looks like Coh3 has finally usurped Coh2 s the popular Coh. You smell terrific.

.
24 Mar 2025, 02:46 AM

Nickbn: and again someone else replies. I mean come on guys. Give @adamírcz a chance
22 Mar 2025, 14:00 PM

Willy Pete: @Nickbn you didn't ask a question, and this is a chat box...
20 Mar 2025, 13:11 PM

Nickbn: @Rosbone it's incredibly rude to speak on someone elses behalf, especially when a question is directly adressed to them. I understand your passion for the subject at hand but I want to hear from him.
20 Mar 2025, 10:16 AM

Rosbone: @Nickbn No, I am just saying people should not be using any Relic owned forum since they have proven they ban anyone who says true things about Coh3.
18 Mar 2025, 19:01 PM

Nickbn: @Rosbone do you speak on his behalf? I didn't know. In that case keep us updated please.
18 Mar 2025, 16:47 PM

Rosbone: #RelicModdedEchoChamber
16 Mar 2025, 17:54 PM

Rosbone: @Nickbn True except, the only people on the Relic Discord/Reddit/Steam are brain washed monkey zealots. They wont even understand what @adamírcz is talking about. Anyone else is banned.
16 Mar 2025, 17:54 PM

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