Superforecasting : The Art And Science Of Prediction
People have been trying to make the sick well for as
long as people have been getting sick. But “wretched”? That is less obvious, even for
readers familiar with the history of medicine, because “most histories of medicine are
strikingly odd,” as the British physician and author Druin Burch noted. “They provide a
clear account of what people believed they were doing, but almost none at all of whether
they were right.” 4 Did the ostrich egg poultices applied by ancient Egyptian physicians
actually heal head fractures? In ancient Mesopotamia, did the treatments of the Keeper of
the Royal Rectum actually keep royal rectums healthy? What about bloodletting?
Everyone from the ancient Greeks to George Washington’s doctors swore that it was
wonderfully restorative, but did it work? The standard histories are usually mute on these
scores, but when we use modern science to judge the efficacy of historical treatments, it
becomes depressingly clear that most of the interventions were useless or worse. Until
quite recently in historical terms, it was not unusual for a sick person to be better off if
there was no physician available because letting an illness take its natural course was less
dangerous than what a physician would inflict. And treatments seldom got better, no
matter how much time passed.
....
You probably realized a couple of things. First, conscious thought is demanding.
Thinking the problem through requires sustained focus and takes an eternity relative to
the snap judgment you got with a quick look. Second, “ten cents” is wrong. It feels right.
But it’s wrong. In fact, it’s obviously wrong—if you give it a sober second thought.
The bat-and-ball question is one item in an ingenious psychological measure, the
Cognitive Reflection Test, which has shown that most people—including very smart
people—aren’t very reflective. They read the question, think “ten cents,” and scribble
down “ten cents” as their final answer without thinking carefully. So they never discover
the mistake, let alone come up with the correct answer (five cents). That is normal
human behavior. We tend to go with strong hunches. System 1 follows a primitive
psycho-logic: if it feels true, it is.
Good Book For Balance Designers
18 Dec 2016, 21:23 PM
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