Mathematical odds of this happening?

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Posts: 589

Sherman vs. Panther, AP rounds

Sherman bounces 7 shots in total vs. frontal armor

2 far
1 medium
4 near

Just curious.. anyone know the stats?

Posts: 324 | Subs: 2

Let's see:

Panther frontal armor: 320

Sherman AP penetration near/mid/far: 120/100/80

Chances for bounces near/mid/far: 0,625/0,6875/0,75

Multiplying everything (0,625 * 0,625 * 0,625 * 0,625 * 0,6875 * 0,75 * 0,75): 0,059 or about a 6% chance.

That doesn't factor in misses, but it's still a pretty low chance.

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Posts: 1708 | Subs: 2

it would be 6% if the simulation was truly random but Relic uses a pseudo random system that they have never explained so it's difficult to work out the chances of multiple events occurring.

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5 Apr 2015, 08:52 AMIpKaiFung

it would be 6% if the simulation was truly random but Relic uses a pseudo random system that they have never explained so it's difficult to work out the chances of multiple events occurring.

What does that mean? You mean there is more to it than chances? The RNGesus is a lie?

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cheers Ginnungagap

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5 Apr 2015, 08:58 AMRMMLz

What does that mean? You mean there is more to it than chances? The RNGesus is a lie?

Nothing involving computers is truly random.

Posts: 308

5 Apr 2015, 08:58 AMRMMLz

What does that mean? You mean there is more to it than chances? The RNGesus is a lie?

I have no idea exactly how Relic's system operates, but some pseudo-random systems modify the possibility of certain outcomes to make them less random, and more relaible.

E.g. chance of a coin landing on heads = 50%, tails = 50%

Assuming the first coin lands on heads, the computer may "modify" the chance of a tails (maybe to 55%) next coin flip in an attempt to avoid two heads in a row, which provides the illusion that heads is more likely than tails.

League of Legends is among the many games using a pseudo RNGesus.

There is also, as has been pointed out, the fact that no computer generated series of random numbers is truly random. They apply an (albeit complex) set of equations, but once you have these equations, you can predict the next number with 100% accuracy.

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Yeah I'm pretty sure it's not truly random. A simple example is when you chase a retreating infantry unit with a tank, I always thought there is an incremental accuracy bonus on the tank the more shells it shoots while attacking the same unit (and I think the bonus gets reset once you hit the target), in fact after 2-3 shells fired you tend to hit the target (it's easy to notice it on T70s)