I sincerely doubt it will shift to the physical terrain - in DoW II, where the capture points mattered much less (no high or medium points, no cutoffs) it just shifted to the VPs. Letting people customize their natural points opens up new strategies in that it lets them get their resources from a safe base that can't be harassed rather than from the field where they have to fight for it. What made DoW/CoH innovative in the first place is that they moved resource collection out of the bases and onto the field so that exciting fights happened in the middle ground instead of skirmishes at the resource lines. We'll still get those, but they will be clusterfucks around the VP, if DoW 2 has taught us anything. Teching will be more like Starcraft where players come in with a build order because they can know (even more than SC2!) that their res won't get harassed.
DoW2 had such an extreme focus on the VP's because the tick down rate was SIGNIFICANTLY faster than in CoH. As for capture points mattering less, that's not really true. (But that's irrelevant to the topic at hand)
As for why I feel the terrain will matter more, it comes down to a few things. I'll preface this by saying that I did not play in the Alpha, so I'm purely speculating on how these mechanics work. There's a lot of new mechanics in the game with blizzards, ice rivers, truesight and heat. With maps being designed around these, physical terrain becomes more important. Since campfires will be crucial, their placement will also be important. Being able to fortify a key point on the map physically; one which may not have any crucial resources could be crucial. (Chokes in particular) Truesight presents possibilities of blindspots or ambushes, the frozen rivers present high risk/high reward alternative paths etc etc
There's more tactical considerations than ever, and the relationship between the terrain is simply going to be more important when you have to deal with all these other factors.