Hey Razelazz, I've just watched your replay and took copious notes. I've identified a few problems that I'll summarize first and then go in to detail.
Often times, games are decided by singular engagements where too many units were lost at a time or a key piece of armor went over unswept ground and became snared. In this game, I don't think you ever had that moment. I would say that the
main issues were your mid-game build order and later army composition. Later, this translated into you having an army ineffective at holding a single position as key units were in other parts of the map. I'm going to talk more about the overarching strategic choices you made rather than specific engagements because I believe that a lot of the engagements you lost were
because you didn't make the best strategic choices.
The underlying issue, your mid-game build order, prevented you from applying pressure to your opponent. You built a super early fighting position covering the entrance to the fuel on the right side. This early, that's a waste of mp. That far forward, it's in a dangerous position. If you wanted a FP to be useful, I'd recommend setting it as far back from the capture point you want to defend as possible but ensure that its arc is completely covering the cap zone. This will make it less likely to be detected and easier to fall back to/prevent your enemy from capping the point. Alternatively, you could've placed it near the three houses close to your base so your REs could lob grenades into the houses and deny them those buildings. Still, I'd recommend not building a FP so early in the game.
Your early game build was Rifle Rifle Rifle Mortar. There is merit in direct fire and I won't tell you to never get a USF mortar, but an assault engineer squad with a flamethrower would've been much more effective at denying your opponent houses, green cover, and punishing a volks running up to lob a flame grenade into a house. It would've also given you another frontline combat unit, something you would desperately need.
I appreciated the LT tech and the AAHT. It's a powerful unit and one that's hard to counter if an OKW player goes med truck. Unfortunately, by the time your AAHT hit the field, your forces were so incapable of causing real mp attrition that your opponent queued up two Rakatenwerfers immediately. However, you were much too aggressive with it. AT 8:50 you ran into a volksgrenadier blob of three squads that all could've fausted you. Fortunately, they retreated and the rakatens were not in position. Eventually, you lost your AAHT to camouflaged Rakatens that crept up to it. You ran it over there to save a squad in trouble and it got out OK but you then failed to withdraw the halftrack while the rest of your squads were in base reinforcing.
After your AAHT choice, there were some issues. You elected to get an M2HB. I think that's a great choice. However, I would've recommended that you get BARs first. You had enough munitions at 9:45 (when the MG hit the field) that you could've afforded three; waited a few seconds and you could've got four. This would've made it easier for you to win engagements and vet up faster and cause more mp loss to your opponent. Instead, four minutes later, you get BARs and an ambulance but between your grenades and upgrading a FP on the left side vp/fuel, you only have enough muni for one or two.
Really, this is where you started losing, the mid game, traditionally the strongest part for USF. You had a resource disadvantage because in the first six or seven minutes, your opponent was able to cap the left side of the map with their Kubel while engaging all of your forces with the rest of theirs on the right hand side of the map. A med truck just outside the base cut a significant time out of the hard retreat of frontline squads, giving the OKW player an advantage with field presence. Also, the player got medics very soon after, putting you at a medic disadvantage for at least four, probably five or even six minutes. AT the 11:35 mark you had an RE, three rifles, and an LT. The RE was at nearly full health, but every other squad was at most at 75% health. Two of your rifles had just at or above 50% health and you had no BARs. There's almost no way you're winning an engagement without suffering severe mp bleed.
To summarize: too slow on getting Ambulance/BARS, poor micro with your AAHT, wasteful mp/mu spending on fighting positions that were so easily destroyed by rakatenwerfers.
At around the 15:00 minute mark, your build order starts to get real wonky. At around 12:30 you lost a rifle squad, putting you down to an RE, LT, and two rifles plus your support teams. You lost your first MG in a poor engagement and was captured by Fallschirmjägers. You've built a second one and decide to build a third M2HB, bringing you up to two plus the one your opponent captured. You also chose to get a second mortar around this time. Getting the second MG (really, third) and the second mortar was a poor decision. You needed infantry to keep up the frontline. Another rifle squad or two (or one rifle/Assault Engineer) would've been good for you. But by this time, the Volks already have StGs and vet. Your lack of infantry allowed your opponent to bully you around the map.
at 16:50, the only thing stopping your opponent from capping the right side of the map was their fear and a 4-man LT squad at 50% health which attempted to 1v1 a squad of falls. You lobbed a nade, one of many which failed to do damage or change an engagement, and then were forced to retreat.
at 18:00, your mortars are forced to retreat because there is no support. Both of your MGs are on the left side of the map, not even set up, doing nothing. Not capping points, not holding the hole between the hedges, just standing around. At the very least, they could've been capping or, rather, should've been behind your mortars and supporting your rifles.
at 20:00 the same thing happens. Your mortars have no MGs to keep back the infantry and one of them goes down and the weapon salvaged.
Summary: you need more infantry and not double MGs/Mortars. Your positioning and use of your weapon teams was not beneficial to you and your opponent continually ran you off the field.
Now, in the late game (not sure how "late" 20 minutes is, though) you've teched to captain. You've had the CPs for the M10 and as soon as you see the panther you call it in. That's great. However, your next fuel purchase is the sherman dozer. With only one source of AT -- an M10 -- and an enemy panther, two rakatenwerfers, and fausts on virtually every squad, you're in for a tough time. Unsurprisingly, the next engagement goes absolutely poorly and you lose the M10. You have 75 fuel and only a bazooka to fend off the panther. your opponent is about to build a P4. At this point, the game nearly lost but you made a decent choice in getting yourself an ATG and a second M10 at 90 fuel. At this point I think you had about 100-150 munitions. That's terrific! I would've recommended that you put two zooks on your RE squad and, if you could, get a BAR on your captain. Treating the captain as a front-line, anti-infantry squad is something I've been doing for a few years now as the Captain's Thompson + 2x BAR dps is pretty good. Regardless of your munition state around the 22:00 minute mark, putting a BAR on your captain wouldn't have been a bad idea so long as you got those bazookas first.
A few minutes later, after more lost engagemetns, you build a second ATG. at 28:47, your captain goes down, the M10 has already died, and the sherman dozer becomes abandoned.
At 31:40, you have a push on the left side consisting of... 2x M2HB and 2x ATG and another M10... This combat group didn't do anything meaningful and wasn't able to push on towards the fuel/VP because your opponent came in from the right side with their armor and a few infantry squads. After keeping your LT in the fight against the panther and P4 and nearly losing it, a hero rifleman squad comes to crew the sherman just before it's destroyed (killing themselves in the process). You surrender and the game ends. I'd hate to write the letters back to the parents of those boys who died for nothing... I don't envy you there
Summary: Your late game army comp was a mess and your vehicles didn't bring a good return on investment.
I know I've basically written a whole bunch of negative words and I am sorry about that. Here's something positive: You had one notable success with a grenade! It went in a perfect spot and reduced the captured M2HB team to 3 men and 10% health! You also wiped the rakatens a few times!
Okay more negatives: That engagement with the captured M2HB was really going in your favor. You had your own MG set up and was about to shoot at your opponent's MG. The other falls squad supporting it was also in the arc and your squad that threw the nade was at 4 men and a decent chunk of health. You didn't have to retreat it! Overall, you lost a lot of engagements. Not to bad micro, but because you didn't have BARs or you didn't get an ambulance soon enough or because you just got out DPS'd by the OKW elite squads/veterancy. The losing of engagements and thus territory is really what set you back. Sure, you had some poor engagements where you misclicked or forgot about a squad and it died. Luckily, that really only happened twice. Once, when your first rifle died at 12:28, and when you had your first M2HB in the house with the LT, then ate a flame nade and it got captured. Late game, you were just stressed and had to manage more units.
Overall, here are the changes I would recommend:
Getting another infantry squad earlier (not getting such an early and easily flankable FP)
Not getting double team weapons (MG & Mortar; zooks on RE squad(s - if you got a second one) to keep you from needing double AT guns)
Getting BAR/Ambulance earlier
Making the right choices for fuel (didn't need Sherman bulldozer if you had more infantry with BARs).
Using your team weapons effectively + supporting your army (AAHT included)
I hope this is helpful!